EU to Greece: No More Unicorns for You.

George Will delivered a great lecture at Princeton on "The Dependency Agenda". The end result of what Will describes is now playing out in Greece.

Desert Island Economics Reading.

If you had only one short essay you could read about the financial mess, its causes and its cure, it should be "An Economy of Liars", by the Cato Institute's Gerald O'Driscoll.

Suffering Fools.

George Will has his hands full on ABC's This Week, facing such scintillating intellects as Bill Maher, Al Sharpton, and Katrina Vanderfloogle, as he argues for enforcement current federal law. What magical ordinances will "comprehensive immigration reform" possess such that it will not be necessary to confront people, with reasonable cause, to determine if they are registered legal aliens? It is a pig in a poke, and the Left knows it.

So It Begins...

This year, dedicated to the proposition that one should actually catch some fish on Opening Weekend, we set out Friday morning for a preemptive strike on North Branch of the Au Sable River (the always-open Flies Only section). We calculated that landing a brace of trout on Friday would demonstrate to the River Gods that we were no Gee-Gaws and were worthy of their plaudits and favors for Saturday.

Friday afternoon on the North Branch was spectacular. We waded to one of our favorite spots at the tag end of a Hendrickson hatch, and fish from parr to ten-inchers, both brookies and browns, were enthusiastically feeding. After catching a half-dozen or so from both species on a Borchers Special (a size 14 is the go-to fly on northern Michigan streams), the hatch and the feeding suddenly stopped. The early-season "Gentlemen's Hatch" has the quality of a fire hose being opened and closed at half-hour intervals for a few hours in the afternoon. Finally, the hose was closed off for the day, and we switched to offerings of bead-head nymphs. The action was slow. Our colleague retreated to the comfort of cabin or "Spike's Keg O'Nails" (he had taken the hatch full force earlier in the afternoon and was suffering from flyfishing shell-shock) while we committed to further fishing downstream until dusk.

In an hour we were rewarded for our persistence. Squadrons of spinners descended from overhead, Emphemerella Subvaria bombers delivering their payloads of peach-colored egg sacks to the water's surface. We had never experienced a Hendrickson spinner fall this intense, and we will never forget it. Nor will we forget the robust brookie fooled by our Rusty Spinner. With the landing of this beauty we declared Opening Weekend a success. Off to Spike's to tell Homeric tales of the Great Spinner Fall!

Saturday, the "Opener-Proper", was the quintessence of such days with cooler, cloudier, and windier weather. And it fished as such; it was very slow. Where were all of the fish that had made the water boil less than a full day past? An Au Sable Lesson: where there are few bugs, there will be few fish. The was no great hatch this afternoon, and correspondingly few spinners in the evening. The fish appeared content with light underwater snacking. A full-day's fishing yielded a handful of fryers taken on soft hackles and bead-head nymphs. We did catch a moment, looking down the river, where we experienced a spiritual convocation of great fish and great flyfishers past. Another memory, and we thanked God for our lives and this blessed storied place.

No Opening Weekend seems complete without a Damn Cold Rain, and it arrived on Sunday morning. As if the melancholy of facing the last leg of Opening Weekend is tough enough, Sweet Lord, this too? "Perfect for streamers!", was heard in the camp to rally morale for fishing in the cold and wet. We breakfasted on omelets, bacon, toast, and coffee, collected our gear, and then went to visit an Au Sable Shaman for guidance as to how to spend our afternoon streamer fishing the Main Branch. From memory he traced a map of an historic location, where a massive rock with a TU plaque honors the vision of founder Art Neumann. A nearby path led us down to a place with swift runs and deep pools, where, the Shaman said, lay some damn big fish. The river banks towered over us like the cathedral canyons of western rivers. Across the river was the landing of the Ginger Quill Camp where Ernie Schwiebert studied nymphs over Scotch.

After two hours of hard fishing, with only a handful of hits to show for our efforts, this correspondent called it a day, and closed out the Opening Weekend.

Princess Petra.

Our wonderful new addition to our family, courtesy of American Brittany Rescue. Don't you dare try to take her duck away!

Is David Frum Right?

Partly. Frum has criticized the GOP for adopting a Nyet! strategy on healthcare, supposedly fomented by the Radio Talkosphere. Frum noted that the version of Obamacare that was signed is very similar to Massachussetts' Romneycare, so the GOP was a trifle hypocritical in their opposition.

Frum is right to claim that a Nyet! strategy was wrong, but it wasn't wrong for Obamacare. That mess will end up at least as bad as Romneycare, where costs are skyrocketing. But the GOP did fail to understand after the 2004 election that the healthcare problem was a nasty boil that would be quickly coming to a head (yuck, sorry about that). Republicans could have moved a free-market, small government-oriented package of solutions in 2005 (something like the McCain plan of 2008) that would have forced the Dem's hand and preempted the crypto-socialist "solution" that we are now stuck with.

Why was this approach not pursued? Perhaps it was because the GOP believed, as Democrats would have hoped, that such a proposal would have been transmogrified into the Middle-Class Black-Tar Heroin of a massive government entitlement. But the risk should have been taken; at least Republicans would have controlled the process. Ultimately one should ask those visionary ex-leaders of the former GOP House majority, Tom Delay and Dennis Hastert, and George Bush, father of the disasterously underfunded Medicare drug program.

How Dare They Cut Earnings!

Congresscritter Henry Waxman, enraged that Catepillar, John Deere, AT&T and other corporations have restated lower earnings to reflect higher immediate costs from Obamacare, will be holding an Inquisition to personally berate them for their impertinent honesty.

Let the Party Bee-Gin!

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow gleefully laid out the rain of goodies to be expected from Obamacare. As a public service we provide some commentary and include some of the other events that will occur during the first few years of the rollout (points marked with * indicate reforms that are commonly accepted as part of less intrusive solutions):

2010:

• Tax credits for small businesses to provide health care for their employees*. May not be sufficient to compensate for increased rates (see below).
• Kids can stay on their parents' plan until age 26; if the increment in rates is not onerous, this could improve the financials.*
• More money for seniors' drugs by plundering Medicare Advantage.
• High-risk pools established.* May or may not raise rates.
• Ban on "previous condition" denials for kids*. This is likely to raise rates.
• Health Savings Accounts gutted; maximum HSA deduction reduced by 60%
• Pro-abortion advocates likely to overturn "Stupak's Order".
• Patching the Medicare provider payment reductions eats all of this year's "savings" and them some.
• The new enormous federal healthcare bureaucracy begins to be assembled, to join all of the other federal government healthcare bureaucracies (Medicare, Medicaid, VA, Military, SCHIP, Indian Health, to name a few).
• The IRS begins hiring its required additional 16,000 agents.
• Pork deals to garner Congresscritters' votes explode like fiscal grenades throughout the year.
• Student loan program converted in government monopoly, except in North Dakota. On the surface, it seems that this has nothing to do with health care. However, it is expected that the profit made on these loans, generated from the interest rate difference between borrowing and loaning, will be part of the advertised "health care savings".

2011:

• Long-term care insurance program established; minimum 5 years of premiums required, but who is going to say no to Grandma?
• Free preventative care for Medicare recipients. Likely to raise rates.
• Annual $2.5B "Pay to Play" charges to drug makers begins.
• Insurance companies must pay out 80-85% of premiums in health care expenses, or must refund difference to policy holders. Most health insurance companies have profit margins at or under 5%, so increased overhead costs to implement new federal rules and mandates are likely to lead to losses in intial years. The federal government's profit ceilings on insurance companies begins their transformation into utility companies.

2013:

• Excise tax on medical devices begins.
• New Medicare taxes on the "Super-Rich" (couples with incomes greater than $250K)
• New tax on dividends and interest income.
• Pilot programs to test "bundled care" Medicare payment programs.

The Mount Vernon Statement.

Getting back to basics.

Come An' Git It!

Health Care Fer All? Sure! Let the taxin' bee-gin! Them savin's? In them Out Years! (read: when Hell freezes up!) Too "sceered" to pass it the way we all larned in school? Sure, sneek it under the door! This is just too important! Now brang on that-there Ammisty! Thar's another 20 million fer Health Care! Maw, git that printin' press a'churnin!

Shame!

Yes, shame and disdain on Senator Jim Bunning for his arrogance in believing that when Congers enacted "Pay As You Go" budgeting that they meant it.

So What?

Today the President gave yet another speech on healthcare, supposedly to announce inclusion of ideas championed by GOP Healthcarewonks into the "process". But, ahem...nothing in the present process has changed: the two chambers of Congress have only their respective bills to negotiate, which are the same as they were when they were passed. Today's exercise by the President is akin to ad men trumpeting that a sink cleanser now has green disinfecting power, hoping that consumers forgot that it had always been green.

Cue the Sharks...

Any proposal to "privatize" a portion of the Social Security program is met with pitchforks and torches from the Left. They kvetch about gambling with the old folks' money in the stock market. However, they feel it is perfectly reasonable to lure savers and investors into the promise of a "guaranteed annuity" from the Gummint in exchange for taking their IRAs and 401(k) accounts to plug the federal debt, or to purchase annuities from that bastion of financial strategery, AIG. Newt Gingrich and Peter Ferrara consider where this may lead.

Some Social Security Math.

Just a point of reference for understanding what is reasonable in the discussing Social Security reform: under the present system, consider a person enters the workforce at 25, with a starting yearly income of $20K, an annual raise of 5% (inflation + merit), and an employee+employer deduction for Social Security of 12.4%, using the current cap of $106,800. Upon retirement at 65 the citizen will have a personal savings of about $290K. The retiree living to 85 will then have a monthly income from this savings of about $1210.

Now, allow this stagnant savings be partially invested (like the federal employee program) such that it results in an annual return of just 2%. The personal savings after forty years will be $390K, for a monthly income (assuming no additional growth) of $1625, more than 30% higher than the stagnant system. Assuming a 1% return on the savings will result in a personal savings of $335K. Of course, these calculations assume that the government didn't spend the money on something else, i.e., they didn't steal it.

The Rant Heard 'Round the World.

February 19, 2009: the day we finally said: NO! It's not about birth certificates, secret socialist plans, or all that other nonsense. It is about preserving the greatest economy in history by insisting on responsibility by individuals, corporations, and the government. The true message is not partisan, it's about accepting some very bitter medicine: serious and painful reform on all government spending, entitlements and otherwise, living with one's means, and allowing the market to reckon with foolishness.

GOP: Come Out Swinging.

The President has asked for a sit down with GOP leaders on healthcare. Call his bluff: come in with a lean, free-market plan that solves the problems that all agree upon.

Oh, If Everyday Could Be a Snowday!

The Gummint will be closed tomorrow because of "The Big Snowjob" (not to be confused with "The Budget Freeze", but the latter does possess qualities of the former). Perhaps Mother Nature can do what the Congresscritters can't: restrain the growth and spending of the federal government.

Walking with Brahms.

The University of Michigan's Music faculty perform recitals regularly; this afternoon featured Brahms's Piano Quartet in A Major, Opus 26 (1862). The opening, Allegro non troppo, carries one away to wet, windswept ridge (well, that's where it carried us). Here is part of the opening, as performed by Sviatoslav Richter and the Borodin Quartet.

The Truth That Nobody Dares To Speak.

Except for David Rosenberg, as reprinted by one of the best financial websites in the world, Minyanville:

The current level of US outstanding nonfederal debt is $27 trillion, which is astounding both in absolute terms and even more so relative to nonfederal GDP -- a 206% ratio. It is down fractionally from the 208% peak, but here is the rub. If mean-reversion means that we get back to some norm of the 1990s, then we are talking about the need to extinguish $8 trillion of nonfederal debt. The only question is how this happens, not if. If we’re talking about mean reverting to the very stable trend of the 1960s and 1970s, then the credit contraction is very likely to exceed $11 trillion.

How do you extinguish debt? Well, most households do so by deferring new purchasing in favor of paying off previous purchasing. Credit will continue to be tight, regardless of government machinations to make it otherwise. Therefore, we're not expecting the consumer to stampede the stores anytime soon. This is going to be a long, painful recovery, but it was a heck of spree that got us to this point.

The Definition of Insanity.

Small businesses not expanding? Well, let's give them the Subprime Special!

Speaking of Fannie and Freddie... - Stephen Spruiell - The Corner on National Review Online

Bill Gates, Red China Doll.


Bill Gates has pooh-poohed concerns about internet censorship in Red China (yes, we still think that way), undercutting Secretary of State Clinton calls for greater freedom of expression there and Google's claims that Red Chinese operatives have conducted cyber espionage against its employees. Gates claimed that internet censorship in Red China is "limited", comparable to internet restrictions that exist in other countries, and easy to bypass. "[And] so you've got to decide: Do you want to obey the laws of the countries you're in, or not?" said Mr. Gates. Yes, Mr. Gates you certainly have asked the right question. Alas, throw another industrialist on the Totalitarian Collaborator Pile.

Piracy on the Internet Sea.

The Financial Times reports that hackers are targeting friends of Google workers, compromising their social networking accounts to lure the Google personnel into clicking on their spyware links.
The source of these attacks? From the article: "the evidence pointed to a government-sponsored effort that only large spy agencies or perhaps some of the most advanced big companies could have withstood, experts said. China on Monday described accusations it was behind cyberattacks as 'groundless'."

It is our opinion that China is engaged in economic warfare through a massive effort to steal proprietary information, and refusing to adhere to world-accepted agreements on intellectual property and trade (note the recent steel dumping episode). Our dependence on their "beneficience" in buying our debt cripples our ability to retaliate in force.

Preztel Tax Policy.

Larry Kudlow asserts that the "Bank Tax" is just blatant crony capitalism. We agree:
Obama Rewards Losers, Punishes Winners by Larry Kudlow on National Review Online

An Apocalypse.

Official sources are now estimating 140,000 dead in Haiti. God, please clear a path of rescue for these poor people.

The Volt's Electric Appetite.

Electric cars are being offered as die Wunderlösung to solve our transportation system's dependence on petroleum. But what would the wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles require in terms of increased electricity production?

We will take as a representative electric vehicle the Chevy Volt. The Volt is expected to operate such that it will consume 8 kW-hr to provide 40 miles of driving (which is a reasonable assumption for a day's mileage of a passenger car). The total distance driven in passenger cars and light trucks in the United States in 2008 was about 2.4T miles. If half of that distance were to be driven in Chevy Volts, the total required electricity to support this yearly travel budget would be about 240M MW-hr.

Note that the total electricity generated in the US in 2008 was about 4.2B MW-hr, so we would need to increase our generation capacity by about 6% to support the widespread use of electric vehicles. In terms of electric-power generation plants, this would mean we would need to build either 20 new nuclear-fueled plants, or 60 more coal-fired plants. This is a substantial investment in infrastructure; a typical coal-fired power plant runs about $1B to build. By the way, using the effective yearly output from a 2MW wind turbine, the number of turbines one would need to provide this electricity would be about 40,000 at a cost of about $120B just to install the turbines. Good luck with that.

One could argue that the energy needs for electric vehicles could be met with the present inventory of generating plants combined with an diligent electricity conservation program. Maybe, but it will take some fancy footwork when combined with the needs for increased electrical power to support robust economic growth.

Then there's the matter of the onerous cost of electric vehicles, but that's another detail the Ultragreen crowd likes to sweep under rug.

Thank God It's Friday!

A Young Man's Return to God.

Our reading so far has told of his retreat from Christian belief, through a modus operandi that was all too familiar from our own adolescence: Creeping Pessimism. The journey of a kindred soul!

Christmas Eve, 2009.

Titus 2:11-14: For the grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation to all, training us to renounce impiety and worldly passions, and in the present age to live lives that are self-controlled, upright, and godly, while we wait for the blessed hope and the manifestation of the glory of our great God and Savior, Jesus Christ. He it is who gave himself for us that he might redeem us from all iniquity and purify for himself a people of his own who are zealous for good deeds.

God, we know we can be a better people. We thank you tonight for providing the light for our path to you.

(Medieval stained glass depicting the Nativity, Claremont Cathedral, France)

Cody, Our Beloved Brittany Spaniel, 1999-2009.

(shown here with Grandpa, Thanksgiving 2009)

"The one absolutely unselfish friend that man can have in this selfish world, the one that never deserts him, the one that never proves ungrateful or treacherous is his dog. A man's dog stands by him in prosperity and in poverty, in health and in sickness. He will sleep on the cold ground, where the wintry winds blow and the snow drives fiercely, if only he may be near his master's side. He will kiss the hand that has no food to offer. He will lick the wounds and sores that come in encounters with the roughness of the world. He guards the sleep of his pauper master as if he were a prince. When all other friends desert, he remains. When riches take wings, and reputation falls to pieces, he is as constant in his love as the sun in its journey through the heavens.

"If fortune drives the master forth, an outcast in the world, friendless and homeless, the faithful dog asks no higher privilege than that of accompanying him, to guard him against danger, to fight against his enemies. And when the last scene of all comes, and death takes his master in its embrace and his body is laid away in the cold ground, no matter if all other friends pursue their way, there by the graveside will the noble dog be found, his head between his paws, his eyes sad, but open in alert watchfulness, faithful and true even in death".

George Graham Vest - c. 1855

A Pavlovian Response.

On the Cigar Afficionado forums we recently read of a comrade, enjoying a Hoya de Monterey in Maine's great outdoors, confronted by some indignant dowagers who claimed that the odor of his cigar had wrecked their soiree some twenty yards away. Our friend went to great lengths in hydrodynamical and micro-climatical analysis to determine that in no way could the aroma of his stogie have reached the ladies in perceptible concentrations. To which we replied:

"The actions by the Ladies of Disapproval had nothing to do with any real olfactory sensation. They saw you smoking. They have been trained by the Mass Culture, much like Pavlov's dogs, to associate the visual cue of cigar smoking with disgusting smells, and so their brain invented a reaction. You should have asked them to play a game of solitare, waited for the Queen of Diamonds to appear, and reprogrammed them.

"In these times with so few predilections for which the State permits its citizens to possess reservations that when one comes along, such as cigar smoking, where the State actually sanctions disapproval you can expect persecution with a ferocity not unlike the burning of witches."

Another State-sanctioned persecution? Perhaps consider the previous post...

An Appeal to Heaven.

Recently, we have been reacquainted ourselves for the joys of hunting and the shooting sports. In the course our adventures we have also rediscovered the enormous separation between the stratum of our society that enjoy and cherish their rights to firearms possession and that which regard these rights as tasteless, immoral, and threatening; something to be suppressed for the good of all.

As our society falls deeper under the spell of lawyers, ersatz TV-psychologists, behaviorists, and social engineers, we fear the pressure to solve our "problems" by racheting up gun control laws will become unstoppable. It certainly is a far easier to do so than to address the deeper problems of pandemic personal disfunction and the enabling milieu.

So When Can We Call It Terrorism?

Victor Davis Hanson provides sobering context for the attack at Fort Hood:

...some 20 other [Islamist] killers [besides Hasan] since 9/11 [who] have shot, stabbed, or run over innocents at malls, airline counters, military facilities, and Jewish-affiliated centers.

We have wondered with incredulity how the elites in the West could have been so silent about the total evil of Stalinism. Are we reliving those times?

Truly, a Clunker.

Edmunds.com recently announced their estimate of the cost to Mr. Taxpayer of the the Obama "Clunkers" auto purchase incentive program. It came in a whopping $24K per vehicle. In related news, the estimated cost per job "saved or created" by this year's Spendulus Bill was at least $390K, based on the spending of $250B to support 640K jobs (source: WSJ).

Whither Human Spaceflight?

The Augustine Committee has released its report on the future of the United States' manned space program, concluding that either we adopt more ambitious goals for risking human life, or abandon the effort. In, particular: "the Committe concluded that the ultimate goal of exploration is to chart a path for human expansion into the solar system". We concur. We have considered what ultimate fate awaits human freedoms and democracy in a world with an exploding population, a diminishing supply of material and spiritual sustenance, and a metastasizing theocratic movement of intolerance and hatred for Western civilization. It is not a sanguine forecast. We believe it is no coincidence that the political revolution that resulted in the most supreme expression of human liberty occurred in a New World, where the principal challenge was to carve a free society out of a wilderness. When this experiment was attempted in the Old World, with its centuries-old social and economic castes, it degenerated into score-settling masquerading as "social justice". Islamofacism is the most dangerous modern variant now threatening civilization, while the infatuation with statism in our country is a less overtly murderous but no less noxious trend. So let us say farewell, sail to Mars, plant Old Glory, and build a Newer World.

Tough Love.

Mark 10:17-31

10:17 As he was setting out on a journey, a man ran up and knelt before him, and asked him, "Good Teacher, what must I do to inherit eternal life?"

10:18 Jesus said to him, "Why do you call me good? No one is good but God alone.

10:19 You know the commandments: 'You shall not murder; You shall not
commit adultery; You shall not steal; You shall not bear false witness; You shall not defraud; Honor your father and mother.'"

10:20 He said to him, "Teacher, I have kept all these since my youth."

10:21 Jesus, looking at him, loved him and said, "You lack one thing; go, sell what you own, and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven; then come, follow me."

10:22 When he heard this, he was shocked and went away grieving, for he had many possessions.

10:23 Then Jesus looked around and said to his disciples, "How hard it will be for those who have wealth to enter the kingdom of God!"

We will not delude ourselves with any sort of "yes, but..." response. We will ask for God's guidance in living our lives to do the most good.

America's Response to the Nobel Committee.

Problems with Healthcare Reform in Massachusetts.

The Boston Globe reports that despite the existence of state laws that mandate coverage and to control costs, as well as extensive participation by non-profit insurers, medical insurance premiums will rise about 10% in the coming year. The article also notes that one unintended consequence of required coverage in the state has been the deluge of physician office visits for physical examinations and other testing. Another substantial component of the cost increase is the movement of the bulk of baby-boomers into older age, accompanied by increased use of medical services and products. Too bad we can't legislate a moratorium on aging, but perhaps this Congress will try.

Chasin' That Demon of the Thin Air...

On October 14 1947, Chuck Yeager became the first human being to travel faster than the speed of sound, piloting the Bell X-1 over the high desert of California. So let us lift a glass of fine sippin' whisky at Pancho's Happy Bottom Riding Club in thanks to God for creating such men. (the video is a clip from The Right Stuff, the 1983 film adaptation of Tom Wolfe's great book).

Freedoms Continue to Erode.

Los Angeles County has now banned outdoor smoking, and New York City is considering a similar ordinance. Any claims of collateral damage to innocent bystanders from outdoor second-hand smoke is laughable. This is pure bullying by the Aesthetic Elites.

Clunker Math.

A good friend made the following observation. A "clunker" that gets 12 mpg, driven 16,000 miles in a year consumes about 1300 gallons of gasoline, while a replacement car at 30 mpg uses about 550 gallons. So retiring a million clunkers will save about 750 million gallons of gasoline, equivalent to 37.5 million barrels of oil (a barrel is normally distilled to yield about 50% gasoline). At $70 a barrel, this means we are spending well in excess of $4B in clunker funding to save $2.7B in petroleum imports this year. This calculation is being very generous in estimating oil savings; the net mpg difference of the clunkers program is substantially smaller, and other distilled petroleum products need the crude oil, too. The clunkers program would have been better run by the Department of Agriculture, for they have extensive experience running subsidy programs.

Perhaps the Apocalypse Is Imminent?

We have always pooh-poohed doomsayers. But then we saw this. Perhaps we should get our affairs in order.

More on The Gathering Storm.

In a sense, the health-care debate and the foreign-policy debacle are two sides of the same coin: For Britain and other great powers, the decision to build a hugely expensive welfare state at home entailed inevitably a long retreat from responsibilities abroad, with a thousand small betrayals of peripheral allies along the way. - Mark Steyn

Leftist Polemics 101.

Andrew Breitbart appeared on Bill Maher's "Real Time", along with (self-)celebrated social critic Michael Eric Dyson*. The results were as one would have expected.

It was an exercise of textbook leftist polemics. To win a debate, you must control the arguement. To control the arguement, you must control the language. As when Dyson defines what Breitbart says as racist code.

Two Russians are on a train, and one asks the other, "where are you going, comrade"? "Kiev", answers the other. "Liar!" shouts the inquisitor, "You say you are going to Kiev so that I will think you are going to Moscow when you in fact are going to Kiev! So why do you lie?"

*Dyson's new book he is now hawking is called "Can You Hear Me Now?: The Inspiration, Wisdom, and Insight of Michael Eric Dyson".

Varsity, Down the Field...

The University of Michigan Bentley Historical Library has a wonderful collection of old Wolverine football game program cover art.

The Gathering Storm.

The President has declared that the "defining struggle" for America's youth is...health care reform. Not delusions such as defending freedom and supporting our friends in the world who cherish freedom as well.

The President has now reneged on missile defense agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic, embarrassing their pro-NATO governments, and making them second-class citizens of the Atlantic Alliance. It also raises the specter of a Russian "sphere of influence" reclaiming control over liberated Eastern Europe. This is done with the hope of pleasing the Russians so they may be more cooperative on stopping Iran's nuclearization. Fat chance for that.

David Frum summarizes the Pollyanna foreign policy of the Administration in The Week magazine, and it's quite discouraging.

Out of the Woods?

Kevin Depew of Minyanville presents a very sobering arguement that our financial system is still gravely wounded by debt.

Semper Liber.

September 11, 2001. We shall never forget.

The Road Divides.

The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) has concluded its national assembly, and the church is forever changed. The passage of the social statement on human sexuality is likely to lead to the secession of many congregations from the national church, as well as a serious schism with Lutherans in other parts of the world.

We mourn the decision of the ELCA that we believe abandons the guidance and authority of Scripture. We also pray for God to light our way along our road to Him.

Edward M. Kennedy, 1932-2009.

The "Lion of the Senate" passes from the scene, and with his passing so closes a volume on one of the most significant political families in our country's history. A man fully invested with admirable qualities, and otherwise. The New York Times features a fine, unhagiographic obituary. R.I.P.

Elvis!

If you don't get up and jump around to this one, yer dead mate!

Ah, such a fabulous outfit...

Not Enough Lipstick...

A few facts that may go a long way to explain why Obamacare is foundering:

1. An overwhelming majority of Americans find their medical care and health plans to be satisfactory, yet they are asked to support a titanic kitchen-sink program that would produce dramatic changes in the health care system.
2. The plan of HR3200 appeared out of thin air, with no prior engagement nor participation of the citizenry, and nobody seems to have an understanding of all the provisions in the 1000+ page document.
3. In the not-so-distant past the President has been a vocal advocate for a "single-payer" health care system, and has gone as far as suggesting that such a system will be implemented in a series of (imperceptible?) steps. And most people are aware of this.

There is no amount of lipstick that can beautify this pig, and there is no number of town halls, websites, speeches, or "spontaneous" rallies of support that can dissuade most Americans of their suspicions as to what they are being asked to buy.

Nuclear Ready.

Duke Energy's CEO Jim Rogers writes in the WSJ that unlike other "green" energy industries, the strong suit in America's hand in clean electricity generation is nuclear technologies.

If We Can't Get the Post Office Right...

A report on how the USPS' flood of red ink will require more cuts in services and offices.

Is Our Government Breaking Down?



(Painting: Neptune Offers the Wealth of the Sea to Venice, by Giovan Battista Tiepolo)


In the last several months we have witnessed historic events: legislation has been introduced and passed (The Bailout Bill, The Stimulus Bill, The Carbon Cap and Trade Bill, and the House Health Care Reform Bill) that possess cosmological scales in size, scope, and cost. This government intervention is so reaching and complex that our legislators now concede that they are unable to analyze and deliberate on their provisions. Yet the Administration has aggressively pushed for a fast-track process for these acts through Congress. A torrential storm of unforseen consequences from this legislation hangs like ominous black laden clouds of an approaching squall.

The process and function of our government is seizing up because of the immensity of this legislation. There is a very real danger that we will destroy republican democracy by the powerful majorities continuing to ram these behemoth bills through Congress without some thought to what they will have wrought. We cannot continue to do the business of the people in this manner.

A thousand-page bill cannot be adequately considered in a fortnight. We are reaching a natural limit to the scale and scope of how the Federal Government can intervene in our lives. It is time to back off.

Beernost.

We do not all of the facts about the incident at Professor Gates' home, so we will not comment on it. We only hope that the President does not make Bud Lite a habit. Author William Least Heat Moon refer to such swill as "liquid air". Now Arbor Brewing's "Old Number 22" is a beer men can share and cure the world's ills.

How to Wreck Health Care Reform.

Peggy Noonan writes today in the WSJ on how the President's insistence on a thousand-page, kitchen-sink "comprehensive" approach to health care reform has likely doomed it. Why can't we simply address the most pressing problems in health care coverage, such as assisting the truly needy and providing for insurance portability, where agreement can be found and does not require radical changes?

The Fundamental Principles of "Health Care Reform".

FreeOurHealthCareNow has articulated the major elements that health care reform plans must include: (i) the right to choose care providers and plans, (ii) timely, unrestricted, patient-centered care, (iii) fairness between individual insurance programs and tax-subsidized employer programs, (iv) the focus of government assistance on the truly needy, (v) portable health plans, and (vi) maximum freedom for patient decisions on care.

TARP Tsunami.

The Inspector General overseeing the TARP program will report to Congers today that the total potential exposure (i.e., the amount for which we taxpayers could be on the hook) of federal programs and departments that are "supporting" U.S. financial institutions totals $23.7T. We'll pause to let this fact sink in...

We can only respond with: this insanity must stop. The people of the United States cannot have the futures of their families held hostage by cosigning to such an apocalyptic sum.

Walter Cronkite, 1916-2009.

We were more of an NBC than CBS man, but when it came to manned spaceflight coverage, Cronkite was our choice. R.I.P.

Aesthetic Living.

Remembering Joseph Eichler's simple, elegant, and beautiful home designs of the late '50s.

Perro Caliente!

Cigar Aficionado appreciates the Noble Frankfurter.
(shown here in its most sublime instantiation, the Chicago Dog).

Independence Day, 2009.

The idea is quite unfounded that on entering into society we give up any natural right.

- Thomas Jefferson to Francis Gilmer, 1816.

Back to the Moon.

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter is returning its first images of our planetary companion. Also, the June 2009 issue of IEEE's Spectrum is devoted to a manned voyage to Mars.

The Polish Opening.

The Wall Street Journal supports our point of view on Iran.

Just Go, Please.

Rich Lowry of National Review has it right: it's not about adultery, it's about dereliction of duty. Governor Sanford, it's time to go.

It's Worse...

The Huron River is running at 1400 CFS at the Ann Arbor gauging station. A true river blow-out. We'll see how things are in a few weeks...

The Circus is in Town!

We Americans can only handle serious issues for brief periods of time. The stretch from February through June was as a geologic timescale for us, filled with Pork Bills, Pirates, North Korea, Iran, Gitmo, Carbon Taxes, Obama Motors, and National(ized) Health Care. So do we now hear calliope music in the air? Yes, indeed, the Circus is back in town, courtesy of the sad passing of Mr. Jackson. The Meatpackers will be consumed by the grisly details of the inquest, rumors, rumors about rumors, indictments, legal fistfighting over the estate, 24-hour televigils, and the massteria of the funeral, burial, tributes, riots, and the associated merchandising. A great time for a backcountry vacation or getting some of that summer reading done. A siren will signal the all clear.

Some Carbon Math.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed an heavily amended version of the Waxman-Markey "Cap and Trade" Bill, which beginning in 2012 levies a tax to emit carbon dioxide at a rate of $13 per ton. This rate will increase steadily over the years, with the goal of forcing reductions of CO2 to less than 17% of current emissions by 2050 (83% by 2020).

The CBO claims that such a tax will cost the average household only $175 in energy costs by 2020. Shall we check the numbers?

The current total US emission of CO2 is about 6400 million US tons per year. The 2012 tax on this CO2 emission will total $83B. If we assume that all of this tax ultimately will be assessed on the 185 million taxpayers in the country (all costs to utilities, manufacturing, transportation, etc. are passed on to the total taxpayer base), the total 2012 tax increase on average per taxpayer is about $450. About one third of the taxpayers actually pay no tax; if we assume that this will also be the case for the CO2 tax (the bill provides for a CO2 tax credit for each lower income household), then the total burden in 2012 per net paying taxpayer will be more like $650. So, a household of two taxpayers will get walloped with an effective $1300 CO2 bill.

To account for the huge disparity with the CBO estimate, either the government will force some entities upstream in the cost flow to eat these costs - with accompanying adverse consequences to the economy, or only a fraction of CO2 emissions will be taxed, which defeats the purpose of the legislation. Something doesn't quite make sense here, and we will post clarifications or revisions to our estimates if the need should become evident.

Intellectual honesty requires us to disclose that we do detect some faint strains of free-market environmentalism in this approach, which has appeal. Free-market environmentalism applied to fair-value pricing of federally owned timber or mineral resources makes sense, since such environmental effects are nearly wholly confined to the land mass of the United States. We could in principle tax ourselves to oblivion for CO2 and do nothing about the increasing emissions from industrialized China and India. Perhaps we could send them the bill?

P.S. - Intellectual honesty, too, would require Democrats to concede that nuclear power must play a prominent role in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation. We will not hold our breath for such a proclamation.

Addendum: The Heritage Foundation has produced a bar graph showing the increased household energy costs caused by Waxman-Markey through 2035.

The Most Brilliant Musical Ever.

"How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying" is the Zeitgeist for the early 1960s. All of the numbers in the film version are superb, but here is our favorite (close second: "Gotta Stop That Man"). Robert Morse is brilliant here, and his role as a partner in Don Draper's ad agency in AMC's "Mad Men" was inspired casting. Like bookends for a commentary of those times. Enjoy.

Situational Support for Freedom.

A puzzling phenomena is occurring in Mainstream Meatpacker World: a large-scale insurrection appears to be breaking out in an authoritarian regime, and the President of the United States, the Leader of the Free World, has shown great reluctance to condemn the regime's theft of a recent national election. The reaction of Meatpacker editorial boards? Exercises in pretzel-logic to support the President's diffidence. Quite remarkable.

Behind the Curtain.

Many have called for the President to employ additional rhetoric against the Ahmadinejad regime for its theft of the Iranian presidential election. Perhaps it will be useful. The real action, however, will occur behind the scenes, something like the actions of the Reagan Administration to shred the Iron Curtain and push the Soviet Union into the ditch.

One can only hope that neither ideology nor diffidence will prevent President Obama from acting during this decisive moment.

So Much for our Enlightened and Intelligent Diplomacy.

North Korea is not following the White House script.

Right Time, Right Place.

Rick Brookheiser reads from his memoir of WFB and National Review.

Pass the Wild Turkey, Please!

If you are not yet convinced of the psychotic disaster that is the Stimulus Spending, consider this: Uncle Sugar Daddy will be plunking nearly a billion bucks in Michigan to pursue such projects as a Neat-O Futuristic Keen high-speed rail line to connect Ann Arbor to the Cool Places. But meanwhile the roads in Michigan will go unrepaired; Michigan cannot provide matching funds for road repair, and therefore the federal government will be withdrawing their contribution. But as our teeth rattle over the potholes, we can take comfort in the Fantastic High-Speed Rail Report that will be produced.

And So It Begins...

Massachusetts Congerscritter Barney Frank has decided to override the decision of GM's management to close their 90-employee warehouse in Mr. Frank's district, no doubt reminding CEO Fritz Henderson of the facilities' critical role in carmaker's resurrection.

Yuck.

The Huron River is running at 700+ cfs, and effectively unwadeable. The water at the Zeeb Road Bridge was a sinister looking roiling flow. The good news is that the smallies have plenty of places to spawn. We will tune in toward the end of June; this condition is not going to change quickly.

A Remarkable Day.

GM hides out in the Chapter Eleven Woods.

Tell'em Stan 'n Edie!

In recognition of the Michigan House joining the ranks of the bullies by passing a bill to ban smoking in bars and restaurants, we offer this Muriel Cigar commercial from '65. You know, when Americans still had freedom of choice.

Peeking Through Justice's Mask.

I would hope that a wise Latina woman with the richness of her experiences would more often than not reach a better conclusion [as a judge] than a white male who hasn't lived that life - Supreme Court Nominee Sonya Sotomayor

Hmm.

Operation Never Forget.

Remembering those now serving, having served, and those who have fallen. Visit and donate here.

Johannes Brahms Radio.

Now available at Pandora. Enjoy!


Note: the Michigan State Commisariat for Good Behavior reminds all of the people that Johannes Brahms is not setting a good example for our children by smoking cigars.

Defeating the Barbarians.

The reality of war is sinking in to President Obama. During the election - when it was a very effective campaign weapon - it was easy to declare that holding enemies of the country indefinitely to be illegal, immoral, and unnecessary. Now that Mr. Obama is charged with the responsibility to protect the people of the United States, his view of this issue has changed dramatically. We welcome this change in his view. We do not dismiss the concerns of civil libertarians, but conclude that as much consideration and legal discretion that is possible during wartime has been made in the internment of these very, very dangerous enemies.

Now that reasonable minds understand the neccesity of holding these persons, what exactly is the need to close Gitmo? The need for such detentions and such facilities begs a much larger question that has been dodged for years: exactly what will the civilized world do to protect itself from the Barbarians?

A Sincere Call for Dialogue?

The President attended the commencement ceremonies at Notre Dame University today, and called for "open hearts, open minds, fair-minded words" in a dialogue about abortion.

Such calls in the past appear have served only as props to help to codify even more aggressive abortion "rights". It makes the mind reel to observe the indifference by many so-called advocates of human rights advocates to the current state of affairs: abortion at any stage of pregnancy, even up to the moment of birth. Years ago the public was assured that abortion would be rare, and restricted to the first thirteen weeks of pregancy. The number of abortions per year is now around a million, nearly ten percent of those occur outside of the first trimester. Half of those who receive abortions in the last year have had one before. A "fair-minded" discussion of abortion would address these alarming statistics. Fat chance for that to happen.

The President further said, “Maybe we won’t agree on abortion, but we can still agree that this heart-wrenching decision for any woman is not made casually. It has both moral and spiritual dimension. So let us work together to reduce the number of women seeking abortions. Let’s reduce unintended pregnancies. Let’s make adoption more available. Let’s provide care and support for women who do carry their children to term.”

Pondering abortion's "moral and spiritual dimensions"? Where was this talk years ago when abortion became synonymous with women's economic and political liberation?

Auferstehen (Resurrection).

Die shall I in order to live.
Rise again, yes, rise again,
will you, my heart, in an instant!
That for which you suffered,
to God will it lead you! - Gustav Mahler

Music names the unnameable, and communicates the unknowable. - Leonard Bernstein

Preserving Our Flyfishing Heritage.

Tom Deschaine, Kelly Galloup, Jerry Kunath, and Jerry Regan contribute to Michigan Dry Flies, devoted to preserving and promoting classic and historic Michigan fly patterns (pictured is the "Lacey Stephan").

Changing Leadership in the Afghan Conflict.

The current commanding general in Afghanistan, David McKiernan, has been relieved. Stratfor provides information on the related rear-area manuevers.

Something for Nothing? Hah!

Michael Ledeen brings us back to reality about the Mullahs' recent act of charity.

By Any Other Name...

Andy McCarthy documents the Administration's sleight-of-hand on military commissions.

Even Famous Christians Find it Hard to Witness.

We find ourselves in distinguished company! We will keep plugging away...

Jack Kemp, 1935-2009.

Bill Bennett had a marvelous three-hour tribute to his close friend this morning. He and his guests completed all of their passes: Jack Kemp worked tirelessly for the message of opportunity in the American conservative movement. He "got it" way before most did. He was the blacksmith who hammered out the exciting ideas of economic liberty into practical political tools, such as the great tax cuts that Reagan adopted. This author was an enthusiastic supporter of Jack for the Presidency in '88. He will be sorely missed, but he has nurtured a new generation to take up his torch. R.I.P.

The More Things Change.

You know the rest. Reposted as periodic required listening.