Preztel Tax Policy.
Larry Kudlow asserts that the "Bank Tax" is just blatant crony capitalism. We agree:
Obama Rewards Losers, Punishes Winners by Larry Kudlow on National Review Online
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Friday, January 15, 2010
The Volt's Electric Appetite.
Electric cars are being offered as die Wunderlösung to solve our transportation system's dependence on petroleum. But what would the wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles require in terms of increased electricity production?
We will take as a representative electric vehicle the Chevy Volt. The Volt is expected to operate such that it will consume 8 kW-hr to provide 40 miles of driving (which is a reasonable assumption for a day's mileage of a passenger car). The total distance driven in passenger cars and light trucks in the United States in 2008 was about 2.4T miles. If half of that distance were to be driven in Chevy Volts, the total required electricity to support this yearly travel budget would be about 240M MW-hr.
Note that the total electricity generated in the US in 2008 was about 4.2B MW-hr, so we would need to increase our generation capacity by about 6% to support the widespread use of electric vehicles. In terms of electric-power generation plants, this would mean we would need to build either 20 new nuclear-fueled plants, or 60 more coal-fired plants. This is a substantial investment in infrastructure; a typical coal-fired power plant runs about $1B to build. By the way, using the effective yearly output from a 2MW wind turbine, the number of turbines one would need to provide this electricity would be about 40,000 at a cost of about $120B just to install the turbines. Good luck with that.
One could argue that the energy needs for electric vehicles could be met with the present inventory of generating plants combined with an diligent electricity conservation program. Maybe, but it will take some fancy footwork when combined with the needs for increased electrical power to support robust economic growth.
Then there's the matter of the onerous cost of electric vehicles, but that's another detail the Ultragreen crowd likes to sweep under rug.
Electric cars are being offered as die Wunderlösung to solve our transportation system's dependence on petroleum. But what would the wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles require in terms of increased electricity production?
We will take as a representative electric vehicle the Chevy Volt. The Volt is expected to operate such that it will consume 8 kW-hr to provide 40 miles of driving (which is a reasonable assumption for a day's mileage of a passenger car). The total distance driven in passenger cars and light trucks in the United States in 2008 was about 2.4T miles. If half of that distance were to be driven in Chevy Volts, the total required electricity to support this yearly travel budget would be about 240M MW-hr.
Note that the total electricity generated in the US in 2008 was about 4.2B MW-hr, so we would need to increase our generation capacity by about 6% to support the widespread use of electric vehicles. In terms of electric-power generation plants, this would mean we would need to build either 20 new nuclear-fueled plants, or 60 more coal-fired plants. This is a substantial investment in infrastructure; a typical coal-fired power plant runs about $1B to build. By the way, using the effective yearly output from a 2MW wind turbine, the number of turbines one would need to provide this electricity would be about 40,000 at a cost of about $120B just to install the turbines. Good luck with that.
One could argue that the energy needs for electric vehicles could be met with the present inventory of generating plants combined with an diligent electricity conservation program. Maybe, but it will take some fancy footwork when combined with the needs for increased electrical power to support robust economic growth.
Then there's the matter of the onerous cost of electric vehicles, but that's another detail the Ultragreen crowd likes to sweep under rug.
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Christmas Eve, 2009.Titus 2:11-14: For the grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation to all, training us to renounce impiety and worldly passions, and in the present age to live lives that are self-controlled, upright, and godly, while we wait for the blessed hope and the manifestation of the glory of our great God and Savior, Jesus Christ. He it is who gave himself for us that he might redeem us from all iniquity and purify for himself a people of his own who are zealous for good deeds.
God, we know we can be a better people. We thank you tonight for providing the light for our path to you.
(Medieval stained glass depicting the Nativity, Claremont Cathedral, France)
Tuesday, December 08, 2009
Cody, Our Beloved Brittany Spaniel, 1999-2009. "The one absolutely unselfish friend that man can have in this selfish world, the one that never deserts him, the one that never proves ungrateful or treacherous is his dog. A man's dog stands by him in prosperity and in poverty, in health and in sickness. He will sleep on the cold ground, where the wintry winds blow and the snow drives fiercely, if only he may be near his master's side. He will kiss the hand that has no food to offer. He will lick the wounds and sores that come in encounters with the roughness of the world. He guards the sleep of his pauper master as if he were a prince. When all other friends desert, he remains. When riches take wings, and reputation falls to pieces, he is as constant in his love as the sun in its journey through the heavens.
"If fortune drives the master forth, an outcast in the world, friendless and homeless, the faithful dog asks no higher privilege than that of accompanying him, to guard him against danger, to fight against his enemies. And when the last scene of all comes, and death takes his master in its embrace and his body is laid away in the cold ground, no matter if all other friends pursue their way, there by the graveside will the noble dog be found, his head between his paws, his eyes sad, but open in alert watchfulness, faithful and true even in death".
George Graham Vest - c. 1855
Friday, November 27, 2009
A Pavlovian Response.
On the Cigar Afficionado forums we recently read of a comrade, enjoying a Hoya de Monterey in Maine's great outdoors, confronted by some indignant dowagers who claimed that the odor of his cigar had wrecked their soiree some twenty yards away. Our friend went to great lengths in hydrodynamical and micro-climatical analysis to determine that in no way could the aroma of his stogie have reached the ladies in perceptible concentrations. To which we replied:
"The actions by the Ladies of Disapproval had nothing to do with any real olfactory sensation. They saw you smoking. They have been trained by the Mass Culture, much like Pavlov's dogs, to associate the visual cue of cigar smoking with disgusting smells, and so their brain invented a reaction. You should have asked them to play a game of solitare, waited for the Queen of Diamonds to appear, and reprogrammed them.
"In these times with so few predilections for which the State permits its citizens to possess reservations that when one comes along, such as cigar smoking, where the State actually sanctions disapproval you can expect persecution with a ferocity not unlike the burning of witches."
Another State-sanctioned persecution? Perhaps consider the previous post...
On the Cigar Afficionado forums we recently read of a comrade, enjoying a Hoya de Monterey in Maine's great outdoors, confronted by some indignant dowagers who claimed that the odor of his cigar had wrecked their soiree some twenty yards away. Our friend went to great lengths in hydrodynamical and micro-climatical analysis to determine that in no way could the aroma of his stogie have reached the ladies in perceptible concentrations. To which we replied:
"The actions by the Ladies of Disapproval had nothing to do with any real olfactory sensation. They saw you smoking. They have been trained by the Mass Culture, much like Pavlov's dogs, to associate the visual cue of cigar smoking with disgusting smells, and so their brain invented a reaction. You should have asked them to play a game of solitare, waited for the Queen of Diamonds to appear, and reprogrammed them.
"In these times with so few predilections for which the State permits its citizens to possess reservations that when one comes along, such as cigar smoking, where the State actually sanctions disapproval you can expect persecution with a ferocity not unlike the burning of witches."
Another State-sanctioned persecution? Perhaps consider the previous post...
An Appeal to Heaven.Recently, we have been reacquainted ourselves for the joys of hunting and the shooting sports. In the course our adventures we have also rediscovered the enormous separation between the stratum of our society that enjoy and cherish their rights to firearms possession and that which regard these rights as tasteless, immoral, and threatening; something to be suppressed for the good of all.
As our society falls deeper under the spell of lawyers, ersatz TV-psychologists, behaviorists, and social engineers, we fear the pressure to solve our "problems" by racheting up gun control laws will become unstoppable. It certainly is a far easier to do so than to address the deeper problems of pandemic personal disfunction and the enabling milieu.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
So When Can We Call It Terrorism?
Victor Davis Hanson provides sobering context for the attack at Fort Hood:
We have wondered with incredulity how the elites in the West could have been so silent about the total evil of Stalinism. Are we reliving those times?
Victor Davis Hanson provides sobering context for the attack at Fort Hood:
...some 20 other [Islamist] killers [besides Hasan] since 9/11 [who] have shot, stabbed, or run over innocents at malls, airline counters, military facilities, and Jewish-affiliated centers.
We have wondered with incredulity how the elites in the West could have been so silent about the total evil of Stalinism. Are we reliving those times?
Wednesday, November 04, 2009
Truly, a Clunker.
Edmunds.com recently announced their estimate of the cost to Mr. Taxpayer of the the Obama "Clunkers" auto purchase incentive program. It came in a whopping $24K per vehicle. In related news, the estimated cost per job "saved or created" by this year's Spendulus Bill was at least $390K, based on the spending of $250B to support 640K jobs (source: WSJ).
Edmunds.com recently announced their estimate of the cost to Mr. Taxpayer of the the Obama "Clunkers" auto purchase incentive program. It came in a whopping $24K per vehicle. In related news, the estimated cost per job "saved or created" by this year's Spendulus Bill was at least $390K, based on the spending of $250B to support 640K jobs (source: WSJ).
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Whither Human Spaceflight?
The Augustine Committee has released its report on the future of the United States' manned space program, concluding that either we adopt more ambitious goals for risking human life, or abandon the effort. In, particular: "the Committe concluded that the ultimate goal of exploration is to chart a path for human expansion into the solar system". We concur. We have considered what ultimate fate awaits human freedoms and democracy in a world with an exploding population, a diminishing supply of material and spiritual sustenance, and a metastasizing theocratic movement of intolerance and hatred for Western civilization. It is not a sanguine forecast. We believe it is no coincidence that the political revolution that resulted in the most supreme expression of human liberty occurred in a New World, where the principal challenge was to carve a free society out of a wilderness. When this experiment was attempted in the Old World, with its centuries-old social and economic castes, it degenerated into score-settling masquerading as "social justice". Islamofacism is the most dangerous modern variant now threatening civilization, while the infatuation with statism in our country is a less overtly murderous but no less noxious trend. So let us say farewell, sail to Mars, plant Old Glory, and build a Newer World.
The Augustine Committee has released its report on the future of the United States' manned space program, concluding that either we adopt more ambitious goals for risking human life, or abandon the effort. In, particular: "the Committe concluded that the ultimate goal of exploration is to chart a path for human expansion into the solar system". We concur. We have considered what ultimate fate awaits human freedoms and democracy in a world with an exploding population, a diminishing supply of material and spiritual sustenance, and a metastasizing theocratic movement of intolerance and hatred for Western civilization. It is not a sanguine forecast. We believe it is no coincidence that the political revolution that resulted in the most supreme expression of human liberty occurred in a New World, where the principal challenge was to carve a free society out of a wilderness. When this experiment was attempted in the Old World, with its centuries-old social and economic castes, it degenerated into score-settling masquerading as "social justice". Islamofacism is the most dangerous modern variant now threatening civilization, while the infatuation with statism in our country is a less overtly murderous but no less noxious trend. So let us say farewell, sail to Mars, plant Old Glory, and build a Newer World.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Tough Love.
Mark 10:17-31
We will not delude ourselves with any sort of "yes, but..." response. We will ask for God's guidance in living our lives to do the most good.
Mark 10:17-31
10:17 As he was setting out on a journey, a man ran up and knelt before him, and asked him, "Good Teacher, what must I do to inherit eternal life?"
10:18 Jesus said to him, "Why do you call me good? No one is good but God alone.
10:19 You know the commandments: 'You shall not murder; You shall not
commit adultery; You shall not steal; You shall not bear false witness; You shall not defraud; Honor your father and mother.'"
10:20 He said to him, "Teacher, I have kept all these since my youth."
10:21 Jesus, looking at him, loved him and said, "You lack one thing; go, sell what you own, and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven; then come, follow me."
10:22 When he heard this, he was shocked and went away grieving, for he had many possessions.
10:23 Then Jesus looked around and said to his disciples, "How hard it will be for those who have wealth to enter the kingdom of God!"
We will not delude ourselves with any sort of "yes, but..." response. We will ask for God's guidance in living our lives to do the most good.
Tuesday, October 06, 2009
Problems with Healthcare Reform in Massachusetts.
The Boston Globe reports that despite the existence of state laws that mandate coverage and to control costs, as well as extensive participation by non-profit insurers, medical insurance premiums will rise about 10% in the coming year. The article also notes that one unintended consequence of required coverage in the state has been the deluge of physician office visits for physical examinations and other testing. Another substantial component of the cost increase is the movement of the bulk of baby-boomers into older age, accompanied by increased use of medical services and products. Too bad we can't legislate a moratorium on aging, but perhaps this Congress will try.
The Boston Globe reports that despite the existence of state laws that mandate coverage and to control costs, as well as extensive participation by non-profit insurers, medical insurance premiums will rise about 10% in the coming year. The article also notes that one unintended consequence of required coverage in the state has been the deluge of physician office visits for physical examinations and other testing. Another substantial component of the cost increase is the movement of the bulk of baby-boomers into older age, accompanied by increased use of medical services and products. Too bad we can't legislate a moratorium on aging, but perhaps this Congress will try.
Saturday, October 03, 2009
Chasin' That Demon of the Thin Air...
On October 14 1947, Chuck Yeager became the first human being to travel faster than the speed of sound, piloting the Bell X-1 over the high desert of California. So let us lift a glass of fine sippin' whisky at Pancho's Happy Bottom Riding Club in thanks to God for creating such men. (the video is a clip from The Right Stuff, the 1983 film adaptation of Tom Wolfe's great book).
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Clunker Math.
A good friend made the following observation. A "clunker" that gets 12 mpg, driven 16,000 miles in a year consumes about 1300 gallons of gasoline, while a replacement car at 30 mpg uses about 550 gallons. So retiring a million clunkers will save about 750 million gallons of gasoline, equivalent to 37.5 million barrels of oil (a barrel is normally distilled to yield about 50% gasoline). At $70 a barrel, this means we are spending well in excess of $4B in clunker funding to save $2.7B in petroleum imports this year. This calculation is being very generous in estimating oil savings; the net mpg difference of the clunkers program is substantially smaller, and other distilled petroleum products need the crude oil, too. The clunkers program would have been better run by the Department of Agriculture, for they have extensive experience running subsidy programs.
A good friend made the following observation. A "clunker" that gets 12 mpg, driven 16,000 miles in a year consumes about 1300 gallons of gasoline, while a replacement car at 30 mpg uses about 550 gallons. So retiring a million clunkers will save about 750 million gallons of gasoline, equivalent to 37.5 million barrels of oil (a barrel is normally distilled to yield about 50% gasoline). At $70 a barrel, this means we are spending well in excess of $4B in clunker funding to save $2.7B in petroleum imports this year. This calculation is being very generous in estimating oil savings; the net mpg difference of the clunkers program is substantially smaller, and other distilled petroleum products need the crude oil, too. The clunkers program would have been better run by the Department of Agriculture, for they have extensive experience running subsidy programs.
Perhaps the Apocalypse Is Imminent?
We have always pooh-poohed doomsayers. But then we saw this. Perhaps we should get our affairs in order.
We have always pooh-poohed doomsayers. But then we saw this. Perhaps we should get our affairs in order.
Sunday, September 20, 2009
More on The Gathering Storm.
In a sense, the health-care debate and the foreign-policy debacle are two sides of the same coin: For Britain and other great powers, the decision to build a hugely expensive welfare state at home entailed inevitably a long retreat from responsibilities abroad, with a thousand small betrayals of peripheral allies along the way. - Mark Steyn
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