EU to Greece: No More Unicorns for You.

George Will delivered a great lecture at Princeton on "The Dependency Agenda". The end result of what Will describes is now playing out in Greece.

Desert Island Economics Reading.

If you had only one short essay you could read about the financial mess, its causes and its cure, it should be "An Economy of Liars", by the Cato Institute's Gerald O'Driscoll.

Suffering Fools.

George Will has his hands full on ABC's This Week, facing such scintillating intellects as Bill Maher, Al Sharpton, and Katrina Vanderfloogle, as he argues for enforcement current federal law. What magical ordinances will "comprehensive immigration reform" possess such that it will not be necessary to confront people, with reasonable cause, to determine if they are registered legal aliens? It is a pig in a poke, and the Left knows it.

So It Begins...

This year, dedicated to the proposition that one should actually catch some fish on Opening Weekend, we set out Friday morning for a preemptive strike on North Branch of the Au Sable River (the always-open Flies Only section). We calculated that landing a brace of trout on Friday would demonstrate to the River Gods that we were no Gee-Gaws and were worthy of their plaudits and favors for Saturday.

Friday afternoon on the North Branch was spectacular. We waded to one of our favorite spots at the tag end of a Hendrickson hatch, and fish from parr to ten-inchers, both brookies and browns, were enthusiastically feeding. After catching a half-dozen or so from both species on a Borchers Special (a size 14 is the go-to fly on northern Michigan streams), the hatch and the feeding suddenly stopped. The early-season "Gentlemen's Hatch" has the quality of a fire hose being opened and closed at half-hour intervals for a few hours in the afternoon. Finally, the hose was closed off for the day, and we switched to offerings of bead-head nymphs. The action was slow. Our colleague retreated to the comfort of cabin or "Spike's Keg O'Nails" (he had taken the hatch full force earlier in the afternoon and was suffering from flyfishing shell-shock) while we committed to further fishing downstream until dusk.

In an hour we were rewarded for our persistence. Squadrons of spinners descended from overhead, Emphemerella Subvaria bombers delivering their payloads of peach-colored egg sacks to the water's surface. We had never experienced a Hendrickson spinner fall this intense, and we will never forget it. Nor will we forget the robust brookie fooled by our Rusty Spinner. With the landing of this beauty we declared Opening Weekend a success. Off to Spike's to tell Homeric tales of the Great Spinner Fall!

Saturday, the "Opener-Proper", was the quintessence of such days with cooler, cloudier, and windier weather. And it fished as such; it was very slow. Where were all of the fish that had made the water boil less than a full day past? An Au Sable Lesson: where there are few bugs, there will be few fish. The was no great hatch this afternoon, and correspondingly few spinners in the evening. The fish appeared content with light underwater snacking. A full-day's fishing yielded a handful of fryers taken on soft hackles and bead-head nymphs. We did catch a moment, looking down the river, where we experienced a spiritual convocation of great fish and great flyfishers past. Another memory, and we thanked God for our lives and this blessed storied place.

No Opening Weekend seems complete without a Damn Cold Rain, and it arrived on Sunday morning. As if the melancholy of facing the last leg of Opening Weekend is tough enough, Sweet Lord, this too? "Perfect for streamers!", was heard in the camp to rally morale for fishing in the cold and wet. We breakfasted on omelets, bacon, toast, and coffee, collected our gear, and then went to visit an Au Sable Shaman for guidance as to how to spend our afternoon streamer fishing the Main Branch. From memory he traced a map of an historic location, where a massive rock with a TU plaque honors the vision of founder Art Neumann. A nearby path led us down to a place with swift runs and deep pools, where, the Shaman said, lay some damn big fish. The river banks towered over us like the cathedral canyons of western rivers. Across the river was the landing of the Ginger Quill Camp where Ernie Schwiebert studied nymphs over Scotch.

After two hours of hard fishing, with only a handful of hits to show for our efforts, this correspondent called it a day, and closed out the Opening Weekend.

Princess Petra.

Our wonderful new addition to our family, courtesy of American Brittany Rescue. Don't you dare try to take her duck away!

Is David Frum Right?

Partly. Frum has criticized the GOP for adopting a Nyet! strategy on healthcare, supposedly fomented by the Radio Talkosphere. Frum noted that the version of Obamacare that was signed is very similar to Massachussetts' Romneycare, so the GOP was a trifle hypocritical in their opposition.

Frum is right to claim that a Nyet! strategy was wrong, but it wasn't wrong for Obamacare. That mess will end up at least as bad as Romneycare, where costs are skyrocketing. But the GOP did fail to understand after the 2004 election that the healthcare problem was a nasty boil that would be quickly coming to a head (yuck, sorry about that). Republicans could have moved a free-market, small government-oriented package of solutions in 2005 (something like the McCain plan of 2008) that would have forced the Dem's hand and preempted the crypto-socialist "solution" that we are now stuck with.

Why was this approach not pursued? Perhaps it was because the GOP believed, as Democrats would have hoped, that such a proposal would have been transmogrified into the Middle-Class Black-Tar Heroin of a massive government entitlement. But the risk should have been taken; at least Republicans would have controlled the process. Ultimately one should ask those visionary ex-leaders of the former GOP House majority, Tom Delay and Dennis Hastert, and George Bush, father of the disasterously underfunded Medicare drug program.

How Dare They Cut Earnings!

Congresscritter Henry Waxman, enraged that Catepillar, John Deere, AT&T and other corporations have restated lower earnings to reflect higher immediate costs from Obamacare, will be holding an Inquisition to personally berate them for their impertinent honesty.

Let the Party Bee-Gin!

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow gleefully laid out the rain of goodies to be expected from Obamacare. As a public service we provide some commentary and include some of the other events that will occur during the first few years of the rollout (points marked with * indicate reforms that are commonly accepted as part of less intrusive solutions):

2010:

• Tax credits for small businesses to provide health care for their employees*. May not be sufficient to compensate for increased rates (see below).
• Kids can stay on their parents' plan until age 26; if the increment in rates is not onerous, this could improve the financials.*
• More money for seniors' drugs by plundering Medicare Advantage.
• High-risk pools established.* May or may not raise rates.
• Ban on "previous condition" denials for kids*. This is likely to raise rates.
• Health Savings Accounts gutted; maximum HSA deduction reduced by 60%
• Pro-abortion advocates likely to overturn "Stupak's Order".
• Patching the Medicare provider payment reductions eats all of this year's "savings" and them some.
• The new enormous federal healthcare bureaucracy begins to be assembled, to join all of the other federal government healthcare bureaucracies (Medicare, Medicaid, VA, Military, SCHIP, Indian Health, to name a few).
• The IRS begins hiring its required additional 16,000 agents.
• Pork deals to garner Congresscritters' votes explode like fiscal grenades throughout the year.
• Student loan program converted in government monopoly, except in North Dakota. On the surface, it seems that this has nothing to do with health care. However, it is expected that the profit made on these loans, generated from the interest rate difference between borrowing and loaning, will be part of the advertised "health care savings".

2011:

• Long-term care insurance program established; minimum 5 years of premiums required, but who is going to say no to Grandma?
• Free preventative care for Medicare recipients. Likely to raise rates.
• Annual $2.5B "Pay to Play" charges to drug makers begins.
• Insurance companies must pay out 80-85% of premiums in health care expenses, or must refund difference to policy holders. Most health insurance companies have profit margins at or under 5%, so increased overhead costs to implement new federal rules and mandates are likely to lead to losses in intial years. The federal government's profit ceilings on insurance companies begins their transformation into utility companies.

2013:

• Excise tax on medical devices begins.
• New Medicare taxes on the "Super-Rich" (couples with incomes greater than $250K)
• New tax on dividends and interest income.
• Pilot programs to test "bundled care" Medicare payment programs.

The Mount Vernon Statement.

Getting back to basics.

Come An' Git It!

Health Care Fer All? Sure! Let the taxin' bee-gin! Them savin's? In them Out Years! (read: when Hell freezes up!) Too "sceered" to pass it the way we all larned in school? Sure, sneek it under the door! This is just too important! Now brang on that-there Ammisty! Thar's another 20 million fer Health Care! Maw, git that printin' press a'churnin!

Shame!

Yes, shame and disdain on Senator Jim Bunning for his arrogance in believing that when Congers enacted "Pay As You Go" budgeting that they meant it.

So What?

Today the President gave yet another speech on healthcare, supposedly to announce inclusion of ideas championed by GOP Healthcarewonks into the "process". But, ahem...nothing in the present process has changed: the two chambers of Congress have only their respective bills to negotiate, which are the same as they were when they were passed. Today's exercise by the President is akin to ad men trumpeting that a sink cleanser now has green disinfecting power, hoping that consumers forgot that it had always been green.

Cue the Sharks...

Any proposal to "privatize" a portion of the Social Security program is met with pitchforks and torches from the Left. They kvetch about gambling with the old folks' money in the stock market. However, they feel it is perfectly reasonable to lure savers and investors into the promise of a "guaranteed annuity" from the Gummint in exchange for taking their IRAs and 401(k) accounts to plug the federal debt, or to purchase annuities from that bastion of financial strategery, AIG. Newt Gingrich and Peter Ferrara consider where this may lead.

Some Social Security Math.

Just a point of reference for understanding what is reasonable in the discussing Social Security reform: under the present system, consider a person enters the workforce at 25, with a starting yearly income of $20K, an annual raise of 5% (inflation + merit), and an employee+employer deduction for Social Security of 12.4%, using the current cap of $106,800. Upon retirement at 65 the citizen will have a personal savings of about $290K. The retiree living to 85 will then have a monthly income from this savings of about $1210.

Now, allow this stagnant savings be partially invested (like the federal employee program) such that it results in an annual return of just 2%. The personal savings after forty years will be $390K, for a monthly income (assuming no additional growth) of $1625, more than 30% higher than the stagnant system. Assuming a 1% return on the savings will result in a personal savings of $335K. Of course, these calculations assume that the government didn't spend the money on something else, i.e., they didn't steal it.

The Rant Heard 'Round the World.

February 19, 2009: the day we finally said: NO! It's not about birth certificates, secret socialist plans, or all that other nonsense. It is about preserving the greatest economy in history by insisting on responsibility by individuals, corporations, and the government. The true message is not partisan, it's about accepting some very bitter medicine: serious and painful reform on all government spending, entitlements and otherwise, living with one's means, and allowing the market to reckon with foolishness.

GOP: Come Out Swinging.

The President has asked for a sit down with GOP leaders on healthcare. Call his bluff: come in with a lean, free-market plan that solves the problems that all agree upon.

Oh, If Everyday Could Be a Snowday!

The Gummint will be closed tomorrow because of "The Big Snowjob" (not to be confused with "The Budget Freeze", but the latter does possess qualities of the former). Perhaps Mother Nature can do what the Congresscritters can't: restrain the growth and spending of the federal government.

Walking with Brahms.

The University of Michigan's Music faculty perform recitals regularly; this afternoon featured Brahms's Piano Quartet in A Major, Opus 26 (1862). The opening, Allegro non troppo, carries one away to wet, windswept ridge (well, that's where it carried us). Here is part of the opening, as performed by Sviatoslav Richter and the Borodin Quartet.

The Truth That Nobody Dares To Speak.

Except for David Rosenberg, as reprinted by one of the best financial websites in the world, Minyanville:

The current level of US outstanding nonfederal debt is $27 trillion, which is astounding both in absolute terms and even more so relative to nonfederal GDP -- a 206% ratio. It is down fractionally from the 208% peak, but here is the rub. If mean-reversion means that we get back to some norm of the 1990s, then we are talking about the need to extinguish $8 trillion of nonfederal debt. The only question is how this happens, not if. If we’re talking about mean reverting to the very stable trend of the 1960s and 1970s, then the credit contraction is very likely to exceed $11 trillion.

How do you extinguish debt? Well, most households do so by deferring new purchasing in favor of paying off previous purchasing. Credit will continue to be tight, regardless of government machinations to make it otherwise. Therefore, we're not expecting the consumer to stampede the stores anytime soon. This is going to be a long, painful recovery, but it was a heck of spree that got us to this point.

The Definition of Insanity.

Small businesses not expanding? Well, let's give them the Subprime Special!

Speaking of Fannie and Freddie... - Stephen Spruiell - The Corner on National Review Online