Custom-Made History.

Edward Rothstein observes how the curators of "identity museums", by pandering to resentments and grievances, are corrupting the telling of history.

The Digital, Social Networked Nativity.

A brilliant little video forwarded by a friend from Inside Catholic. Avoid Romans.

China Hijacks the Wind Energy Market.

There are consequences when the United States gives China a trillion or so dollars in net trade: the Chinese use that money to capture new world markets and push others out. One example is the wind energy industry. Just a few years ago the United States and some European firms were poised to explosively grow their wind energy markets in the U.S. and China (one remembers Tom Friedman's column on alternative energy being the growth industry for America). Cheap loans and land leases to domestic startup companies, provided by the Chinese government, along with onerous local content requirements on foreign firms have allowed the Chinese to build a world-competitive wind industry on the backs of GE and others. Now the Chinese are moving to capture the U.S. and European wind markets. Our government and our normally rabid anti-free trade unions have hemmed and hawed in creating an effective response to ersatz free trade as practiced by the Chinese.

On Being Irresponsible.

There are too many things we are told to do because they are important to other people and we have been gulled into thinking they must be important to us as well. Richard Feynman reminds us otherwise.

Green Shoots in Winter.

Isaiah 11:1-10

11:1 A shoot shall come out from the stump of Jesse, and a branch shall grow out of his roots.

11:2 The spirit of the LORD shall rest on him, the spirit of wisdom and understanding, the spirit of counsel and might, the spirit of knowledge and the fear of the LORD.

(The picture is of a Bavarian ivory panel, circa 1200, depicting the Tree of Jesse. Image courtesy of the Divinity Library at Vanderbilt University.)

'Tis the Season.

For decades Christians have been hectored regarding tolerance for other religious beliefs or atheism. We wonder whether the self-proclaimed foes of Christianity and its traditional Catholic or Protestant expressions even understand its essence: the reconciliation of Man with God, Man's salvation through Him, and the spiritual transformation of Man by God. This Christian claims no more than epsilon of such understanding, but enough he believes to assert that no human power can bring people to God, but God himself provides this force (through the Holy Spirit). Christians can only bear witness to others of God's grace. Christians can best provide this witness through humble, pious and compassionate living. Tolerance for the religious beliefs of others is axiomatic to Christian life. (Perhaps some would accuse this Christian of advocating a "post-evangelical" life in the world; we think of it more as a "neo-evangelical" life.)

So it is too, during Advent that Christians rejoice at the coming of our Savior, and wish to express our joy of His coming to the world. What others make of this remembrance is for them to decide - Christians should, we believe, understand and accept this for the aforementioned reasons. All that this Christian would humbly ask is that the world not persecute us nor try to humiliate and shame us for our enthusiasm for Advent. In return we present Christmas to the world as a recess from the jungle of everyday living, a respite to provide a time for kindness and civility and love between people.

The poster shown above is a billboard now displayed near a busy thoroughfare an approach to New York City. It ridicules Christians for their beliefs. The spokesman for American Atheists recently stated, “this year, we decided to give the religious right a taste of what war on Christmas looks like.”

We do not understand how this billboard is an attack that is particular to "the religious right" - it appears to be a snide attack on Christians that is completely indiscriminate toward either the Christian "left" or "right". The American Atheists appear to claim that whatever a Christian's political stripes, they are unreasoning boobs for their allegiance to a myth.

So who is the party that really needs to demonstrate tolerance in religious beliefs?

Such a Feast!

This correspondent derives great joy in making the Thanksgiving Feast for loved ones. In particular we like to find recipes that pay tribute to the traditional board, but with a twist:

• Beer-Brined Apple-Smoked Turkey
• Wild Rice with Turkey Stock and Raisins
• Braised Spinach with Bacon and Onion
• Cranberry-Orange Relish
• Blackberry Pie

And a nap (completely traditional).

Thanksgiving 2010.

From Nathaniel Morton's journal of the Plymouth Colony:

...Being now passed the vast ocean, and a sea of troubles before them in expectations, they had now no friends to welcome them, no inns to entertain or refresh them, no houses, or much less towns, to repair unto to seek for succour; and for the season it was winter, and they that know the winters of the country know them to be sharp and violent, subject to cruel and fierce storms, dangerous to travel to known places, much more to search unknown coasts. Besides, what could they see but a hideous and desolate wilderness, full of wilde beasts and wilde men? and what multitudes of them there were, they then knew not: for which way soever they turned their eye (save upward to Heaven) they could have but little solace or content in respect of any outward object; for summer being ended, all things stand in appearance with a weatherbeaten face, and the whole country, full of woods and thickets, represented a wild and savage hew.

If they looked behind them, there was a mighty ocean which they had passed, and was now as a main bar or gulph to separate them from all the civil parts of the world.

Lisa Heart Pork!

Presumptive Senator-reelect Lisa Morekowbell Merkofski Mooorrrkkouzky M%$#@*..ththt Myxlplyx Murkowski (R), citing Alaska's recent entry into the Union(!), has vowed to fight for her right to earmark taxpayer money from the Lower 48 for Noble Projects for the Last Frontier.

A list of these projects, all $80M of them for 2010, are listed here. Note that many of these are defense projects. The DoD normally specifies (earmark) all of the spending in their budget, so these projects presumably are those that Senator M. added as being, in her judgement, critical to the mission of our armed forces.

Oklahoma Senator James Inhofe (R), and Mississippi's Thad Cochran (R, and Earmark Champion) have also vowed to nip the ears of Porky, too.

(Visual: John Q. Public, wearing a five-dollar suit and straw boater, holding a deed to the Brooklyn Bridge. Caption: "You mean they lied to me?")

The Christian Student.

Stanley Hauerwas pens a superb letter of advice to Christian college students, and for the rest us, too.

Yeah, Cut'em Loose.

With the brouhaha over NPR's sacking of Juan Williams, we thought it might be worth calling the question: Is National Public Radio really public radio? Our thoughts on this consideration, from an earlier post, can be found here.

The Big Rolls in the Game.

The Center for Responsive Politics has tabulated the spending by independent organizations (i.e., not the political parties). Here are the totals:

Pro-GOP: $140.0M

• US Chamber of Commerce - $75.0M
• "American Crossroads" (Rovian Cabal) - $65.0M

Pro-Dem: $171.5M

• AFSCME - $87.5M
• SEIU - $44.0M
• NEA - $40.0M

In our local Congressional race, Democrat Mark Schauer has received about $1M from PACs, while Republican Tim Walberg has received about $270K, as reported by the CRP.

The Dry Rot at NPR Breaks Through.

Willie Geist and Mike Barnacle speak out about NPR's firing of Juan Williams.

For the record, here is the Google search tagline for Juan's NPR page, now removed:

Juan Williams, one of America's leading journalists, is a news analyst with NPR News. He also works on documentaries and participates in NPR's efforts to ...

Well, at least they used to think he was a leading journalist.

Heads They Win, Tails We Lose.

For the second consecutive year, Social Security payments will not increase. Federal rules require that COLA increases occur when the Consumer Price Index is higher than the previous year. However, when the CPI is constant or falls, SSI payments are fixed at the previous year's level' and increases do not resume until the CPI exceeds that level.

Until 2009 this prudent rule for Social Security had resulted a string of unbroken payment increases: the average SSI COLA from 2000 through 2009 has been 2.8%, while the CPI has increased on average by 2.6% over the same period. And everyone, particularly the AARP, was quite happy.

Then in the first full year of the Great Comeuppance the CPI fell, and SSI payments were frozen. Uncle Sugar Daddy has broken the bad news that 2010's CPI also fell 0.6% below the 2008 level, so that next year's SSI payments will remain unchanged. Now all Hell has broken loose in The Dismal Swamp.

The White House and Democrats want to ignore the COLA rule, and toss an extra $250 toward each senior, if not to buy their love, then at least to secure their vote. That's an additional $14B on the fiscal bonfire. But that's our kids' problem, right?

A Tax Gedanken Experiment.

N. Gregory Mankiw, Harvard professor of economics and confessed fat-cat, runs through the math of the proposed tax hikes, and finds that, combined with current tax rates, it will effectively zero out all growth in his next dollar.

Dust to Dust.

This scene from "F for Fake" tries to answer the question "and who stood here?"

Not Business as Usual?

Two nuggets in the news that add to the increasing pile of evidence that we are doomed:

1. A UAW chapter has nixed a deal to sell an Indianapolis parts plant that would have kept its doors open, albeit with lower wages and benefits. The opponents' rationale was that when the plant closes, many of the union workers will be able to transfer to other plants, keeping their current higher rates of pay. The unlucky workers at the plant who cannot transfer, all of the support workers at the Indy plant, and local merchants are, of course, left holding the bag.
2. It seems that majority taxpayer-owned General Motors has made over $90K in contributions to congressional campaigns, including those of Democrats John Dingell, Debbie Stabenow, and Republican Eric Cantor. To say that this reeks of "moral hazard" is to be polite.
   

Scooting to Insolvency.

An often-encountered TV commercial: offers for senior mobility scooters with where Medicare picks up the cost...

Scooters for seniors are a good thing, as is any medical technology or treatment that helps people lead more comfortable and productive lives. As health care becomes more entwined with politics, one can forsee the pressure for Medicare and Medicaid to pick up the tab for many, many good things like scooters. Ultimately someone must pay for all of these good things.

Taking the High Road.

Democrats will stick to the issues for the rest of the campaign, the NYT reports. Critical issues like their opponents' divorces, drinking, bankruptcies, philandery, lawsuits, kids' bad grades, and fashion sense.

So Much for Free Trade.

China is trying to bully Japan to give up control of some of her fishing waters by halting exports to Japan of technologically critical rare-earth elements.

An Observation.

Four years ago, our TV was bombarded by ads for Jumbo home loans, teaser-rate home loans, no-interest home loans, etc. Now we see many ads for companies that will help you "walk away from your mortgage, scott-free". God, what hath we wrought?

Obamacare's Collateral Damage.

Tucked in the deep recesses of the Obamacare Law is this mind-blowing tax-reporting provision (as reported by the Paper of Record):

...To improve compliance, the new health care law requires businesses to file tax forms known as 1099s identifying anyone to whom they pay $600 or more for goods or merchandise in a year.

Businesses will also have to send copies of the form to their vendors, suppliers and contractors. The forms are already widely used to report various kinds of payments of taxable income other than wages, like interest income or dividends. But the health care law requires filing the forms in many more instances than they were typically used before.

The premise of the requirement was that businesses would be more likely to pay taxes on their income if they knew that the income was already being reported to the Internal Revenue Service by their business partners...

The claim is that whopping $17B in additional revenue may be recovered over the next ten years. Of course, the cost to businesses - particularly small businesses - is not considered. Former GE CEO Jack Welch made the following observation: a independent truck driver who hauls cross-country loads will have to issue 1099s to dozens of truck stops, simply for fueling-up his rig, or face the wrath of the IRS.

This madness must end.

The President's View on Taxing Investment Return.

Another telling moment at the President's CNBC Wall Street Town Hall: during an exchange about taxes on the Ultrarich, the President suggested that it was only reasonable that a Big Wheel should pay taxes on his dividend income at a rate closer to the higher rate that his secretary pays on her wages. Perhaps the President forgot that taxes were paid on those dividends before their distribution, as income to the company. Also, the Big Wheel is not getting a guaranteed return in exchange for his labor, but the secretary is. The Wheel is also risking a loss on his capital investment, but that is another tax policy argument. Perhaps the President forgot these facts. Then again, perhaps he didn't know them - unlikely - or maybe his ideology guides him otherwise.

Wonderland Comes to the Street.

On CNBC the Lecturer in Chief expounded on the economy, blaming others (GOP, Bush, the Ultrarich) for all problems, and generally how those who disagree with him are just so wrong. Lots of Obamites in the town hall crowd, and one could swear there was an APPLAUSE sign over them.

Outrage of the event: the President claimed that government is less intrusive than it was thirty years ago. Make sure to pick up your jaw before leaving the room.

Now That's Efficiency!

From CNBC: Senator Carl Levin will attend A123 Systems' opening of its new car battery plant today in Livonia, Michigan. It will provide 3000 jobs...provided by $2.4B of Federal Stimulus Ham. That's a paltry $800K per job. Observers of the electric car business note that there may already exist a substantial surplus in electric car battery production in the U.S. Levin's answer: more Federal Ham to pay folks to buy electric cars. The Chevy Volt will start at a list price $40K. Will Uncle Sam throw in $10K of that to make them competitive with comparable vehicles with conventional power plants?

Iran Gaming Nuclear Inspections.

The New York Times reports that Tehran refuses access of the IAEA's most experienced inspectors to its nuclear development programs, including the agency's chief inspector for Middle East nuclear programs.

Acceptance Through Irrelevance?

Fred Schwarz pens a thoughtful essay on the changes in the American political and religous landscape fifty years after JFK's speech to the Greater Houston Ministerial Association.

Tony Blair Stands Firm.

Former British Prime Minister was goaded by Christiane Amanpour to concede that intervening in Iraq was a mistake, and he would have nothing to do with it. Ms. Amanpour's frustration in clearly evident in the video as Mr. Blair strays from "the narrative".

A Bend in the River.

This lay-historian continues to be (naively) baffled that when a society passes a "major historical juncture", that the occurrence of this event is not considered obvious. This is setting aside any consideration as to what course needs to be set to navigate beyond this point.

We believe that a clear - and simple - declaration of such a historical juncture that Western Civilization has recently passed is David Hart's reflection of our world in that of Rome's emperor, Julian.

While You Were Out, Civilization was Changed.

From yesterday's ruling from San Francisco's Federal Circuit Court, striking down California's Proposition 8: "Gender no longer forms an essential part of marriage".

Better make that a double, Joe.

The Un-Christianity.

The American Spectator reviews Mortal Follies: Episcopalians and the Crisis of Mainline Christianity, by William Murchison. He chronicles the decline of this historically critical Protestant denomination, correlated with its "rejection of orthodoxy in favor of cultural and political fads, regardless of the spiritual consequences".

The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) is now following a similar path. One hopes one will chronicle that tragedy as well.

Sorry, Bernie.

The Iranian Government's Ministry of Culture has issued a list of acceptable haircuts. (the picture is of the beloved "Bernie" from the early '70s TV show, "Room 222")

Lost in Space.

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden, a decent and brave man, shared the President's primary goal he envisions for NASA: reaching out to the Muslim world, so that they can feel good about their contributions to math and science. We are not making this up. In contrast, let us remember this moment shown below, that occured nearly fifty years ago:



President Obama's vision for NASA is pathetic. To see a preview of this diminished role for the U.S. in space, see Deputy Administrator Lori Garvin's webcast with Space News earlier this year.

Independency!

Give us a country where we each can seek and fulfill our destiny, as we see fit. Give us a country where our rights are issued not from pen of a king, but from the hand of God. Give us a country where we loan the smallest portion of these rights to the State for proscribed exercise. Give us a country where charity towards our fellow man comes freely from our hearts inspired by God, and not coerced from our pockets through threats by the State. Almighty God, if You bless us with such a country, we shall preserve it forever to the glory of Your Almighty Righteousness.

The McChrystal Imbroglio.

Should a capable general be fired over a "they said that he said" article in Rolling Stone? The latest report is that the general will arrive at the White House with resignation letter in hand.

Perhaps General McChrystal has been asking the President to answer the Four Essential Questions of Strategy, as stated by Thomas Ricks, author of Fiasco:

• Who are we?
• What are we ultimately trying to accomplish?
• How will we do it?
• What resources and means will we employ in doing it?

Do we have clear answers to these questions regarding Afghanistan?

Pointless, Valueless Theater.

Tony Hayward, CEO of BP, is not an Oil Man. His pedigree is finance, serving in the corporation's Mergers and Acquisitions department for the majority of tenure at BP. In today's testimony to Congers, it was very clear that Hayward was not there to answer questions specific to his expertise, but was summoned so that Congresscritters could look good to the "little people" by ranting at him. Not that they understood the significance or triviality most of the technical questions they threw at him. If we were offered a seat along side the Critters, we would have asked the following questions:

1. When you became CEO of BP and directed a "laser-like focus" on improving safety, at that time were you made aware of any drilling, production, refining, or petroleum transportation activity that was operating with unacceptable bounds of safety, regardless of whether they met federal oversight requirements? For example, were you told that the overall approach to drilling procedures could allow operations with an amplified risk of failure or accident? Were there operations that you unilaterally halted because of safety concerns?
2. As CEO you receives safety briefings that were at the highest level, with little technical detail for evaluation. Basically, you are given "red light - green light" status reports of safety initiatives. Who in the BP organization does have the responsibility to evaluate the technical criteria to assess whether BP operations were improving in safety? What reports were you getting from these personnel about the state of drilling safety?
3. What conditions did you place on your subcontractors, Transocean and Haliburton, in decision-making for safe practices on the rig? Did either have veto power over procedures directed by BP personnel?
4. What are the experience requirements for BP rig managers? Does a single BP manager have authority for rig operations?
5. What direction or guidance were you given by MMS as part of your improved safety initiatives? Did you solicit input from MMS for this? If so, what was their response?

These hearings can be quite valuable in determining the structure of risk manangement and decision making for operations of BP and the other producers in the Gulf, and the interaction of MMS. Or they can be useless theater.

Calling Gene Kranz!

There are Oil Men who know what to do. We don't care who they work for or where they live, pound on their doors and get them in here!

Yup, Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste.

The Wall Street Journal comments on how the Administration used the good name of oil engineering experts to push ideology.

The Failure of Risk Management.

Nansen Saleri, former head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco, provides a non-hysterical, apolitical, and sober analysis of oilshore oil drilling in the shadow of the Deepwater Horizon accident. His claim is that the principal failure that lead to the catastrophe was that of effective risk management. Saleri also reminds us that shutting down offshore drilling may actually increase the risk of another oil spill from much more vulnerable oil tankers.

Dim-Bulb Debbie Strikes Again.

Michigan's Junior Senator, Debbie Stabenow continues to embarass her state. We are not inclined to ad hominem attacks on congresscritters. But we'll suspend our restraint for this one, extraordinary moment: Debbie Stabenow is a Chucklehead. She believes that the power, dignity, and solemn gravity of her office should be used to call for the Commissioner of Baseball to overrule the umpire who denied a Tiger pitcher a perfect game:

MACKINAC (ISLAND) (sic)– U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) today made the following statement urging Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig to invoke the “Best Interests of the Game” clause to declare Armando Galarraga’s performance perfect.

“Last night’s performance deserves its place in the record books. It is clear that Commissioner Selig should make an exception in this case and invoke the ‘best interests of the game clause’ to reflect Armando Galarraga’s perfect game for the Detroit Tigers.” – U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow.

Will some human, animal, vegetable or mineral, take up votes and by opposing this twit, end her Senatorial career? Please?

The "Competence" Theme Snowballs.

Tom Coburn's appearance on a recent Morning Joe says it all. But if you need additional ammunition, read Peggy Noonan's recent WSJ column. But to be fair, this is problem is beyond Mr. Obama or any president. It's a loss of vision by our leadership - and the electorate - of what constitutes conscientious stewardship of our Republic.

Bonding Over Brookies.

Yesterday we took the younger son and his girlfriend flyfishing for brook trout on the North Branch of the Ausable. The single day's drive was brutal, the sun was penetrating, the air was hot, the water was low, and the fishing was so-so. But the experience was priceless. The girlfriend, being a flyfishing greenhorn, naturally caught the nicest fish of the day. The son, full of pomp and hubris, naturally was skunked. Your correspondent held his own, but acknowledged that his pace to wade a stream was not quite that of the young folk ("SLOW DOWN! Flyfishing is not a scavenger hunt, son!"). Perhaps fishing colleagues would observe our tendency toward the phelgmatic, though. Our heart skipped a beat when a very nice brown cruised through the pool we were working. He was searching for a cool shady spot and was having none of our offerings.

After five hours of hard fishing, we pulled off our waders and paid a visit with Grandpa and Grandma; caught up with local happenings (forest fires, song birds, and variae), then dined at one of the storied dives of Northern Michigan - the Whitehouse Diner in Clare.

A wonderful day spent with people we love!

An Emerging Theme.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal was interviewed by ABC News' Jake Tapper about the strange laxidasical behavior by the United States Government regarding the protection of his state's coastal wetlands. Aha! thought Jake, doesn't this contradict his conservative view of limited government? Jindal replied:

“When government grows too big, it doesn't do its core functions properly. Absolutely, I believe in a limited government that is effective and competent in what it does. We need federal government exactly -- we need our federal government exactly for this kind of crisis.”

George Will has also jumped on this theme: asserting that a massive central government that intervenes in all aspects of the nation's life will, by corollary, be competent at the essential functions that are truly of national interest is false. Advocacy for a limited federal government is not simple ideology of Washington "doing nothing". There are roles - such as national defense or the coordination to mitigate an interstate enviromental disaster - that are appropriate for a federal government. Then there is most of the rest of what Washington believes is good value for your tax dollars.

Look for the theme of "limited and competent government" to grow in the public conversation.

Is Big Oil Undermining US Security?

Larry Kudlow has been dogging oil giants Shell, BP, and Total about selling the Pentagon refined petroleum with one hand while paying Iran for the crude with the other. That's money that goes to kill Americans in Afghanistan and build nuclear weapons.

More Bad News About Unicorns.

News reports indicate that they are close to extinction in Italy, too.

Yet Another "Emergency" Spending Bill.

Remember the bill to extend unemployment insurance for which Senator Jim Bunning had the cruelty to ask "who pays for it"? Well, get ready for another "emergency" job stimulus and tax loophole closing (tax and spend for short) bill coming from Congers. Pay as you go? Come on, that is soooo two months ago!

We are heading for a tipping point in cynicism of the people towards their government.

A Time for All Things.

Like Milton in Office Space, Utah Senator Robert Bennett just can't accept that he is being let go. The Nattering Nabobs are mourning Bennett's loss: how could the rabble* turn out such a marvelous patrician and "cut short" a stellar political career?

Because if we accept a Ruling Class, as many in the Beltway do, we are doomed. It's not a lifetime appointment; you serve at the pleasure of the people and the support of your party. Bennett, from what we can discern, has been a fine public servant. But there is a time for all things, and if he has thrived courtesy of the Utah GOP, then may wilt by them as well. Bob, make sure to take your fern on the way out, and tell Arlen Specter he has thirty minutes to collect his stuff. If you choose to run as an independent, you are free to do so. You may want to consult with Joe Lieberman.

*A gushing fan of Adlai Stevenson confessed to him, "Mr. Stevenson, all of the thinking people of America are voting for you!". "Madam", replied Stevenson, "that is not sufficient...I need a majority".

Unicorns No Longer Found in Spain!

Spain announced austerity measures, including a 5% cut in the pay of civil servants. You know, those guys that don't create wealth, just consume it? The Spanish workers, convinced that the government is hiding the unicorns in secret warehouses, have called for a national strike on June 8. Meanwhile there are plenty of free-lance unicorn hunters among the 20% of Spaniards who are currently unemployed.

Like Scrooge and his Third Shadow, we are seeing images of things that could come to pass.

EU to Greece: No More Unicorns for You.

George Will delivered a great lecture at Princeton on "The Dependency Agenda". The end result of what Will describes is now playing out in Greece.

Desert Island Economics Reading.

If you had only one short essay you could read about the financial mess, its causes and its cure, it should be "An Economy of Liars", by the Cato Institute's Gerald O'Driscoll.

Suffering Fools.

George Will has his hands full on ABC's This Week, facing such scintillating intellects as Bill Maher, Al Sharpton, and Katrina Vanderfloogle, as he argues for enforcement current federal law. What magical ordinances will "comprehensive immigration reform" possess such that it will not be necessary to confront people, with reasonable cause, to determine if they are registered legal aliens? It is a pig in a poke, and the Left knows it.

So It Begins...

This year, dedicated to the proposition that one should actually catch some fish on Opening Weekend, we set out Friday morning for a preemptive strike on North Branch of the Au Sable River (the always-open Flies Only section). We calculated that landing a brace of trout on Friday would demonstrate to the River Gods that we were no Gee-Gaws and were worthy of their plaudits and favors for Saturday.

Friday afternoon on the North Branch was spectacular. We waded to one of our favorite spots at the tag end of a Hendrickson hatch, and fish from parr to ten-inchers, both brookies and browns, were enthusiastically feeding. After catching a half-dozen or so from both species on a Borchers Special (a size 14 is the go-to fly on northern Michigan streams), the hatch and the feeding suddenly stopped. The early-season "Gentlemen's Hatch" has the quality of a fire hose being opened and closed at half-hour intervals for a few hours in the afternoon. Finally, the hose was closed off for the day, and we switched to offerings of bead-head nymphs. The action was slow. Our colleague retreated to the comfort of cabin or "Spike's Keg O'Nails" (he had taken the hatch full force earlier in the afternoon and was suffering from flyfishing shell-shock) while we committed to further fishing downstream until dusk.

In an hour we were rewarded for our persistence. Squadrons of spinners descended from overhead, Emphemerella Subvaria bombers delivering their payloads of peach-colored egg sacks to the water's surface. We had never experienced a Hendrickson spinner fall this intense, and we will never forget it. Nor will we forget the robust brookie fooled by our Rusty Spinner. With the landing of this beauty we declared Opening Weekend a success. Off to Spike's to tell Homeric tales of the Great Spinner Fall!

Saturday, the "Opener-Proper", was the quintessence of such days with cooler, cloudier, and windier weather. And it fished as such; it was very slow. Where were all of the fish that had made the water boil less than a full day past? An Au Sable Lesson: where there are few bugs, there will be few fish. The was no great hatch this afternoon, and correspondingly few spinners in the evening. The fish appeared content with light underwater snacking. A full-day's fishing yielded a handful of fryers taken on soft hackles and bead-head nymphs. We did catch a moment, looking down the river, where we experienced a spiritual convocation of great fish and great flyfishers past. Another memory, and we thanked God for our lives and this blessed storied place.

No Opening Weekend seems complete without a Damn Cold Rain, and it arrived on Sunday morning. As if the melancholy of facing the last leg of Opening Weekend is tough enough, Sweet Lord, this too? "Perfect for streamers!", was heard in the camp to rally morale for fishing in the cold and wet. We breakfasted on omelets, bacon, toast, and coffee, collected our gear, and then went to visit an Au Sable Shaman for guidance as to how to spend our afternoon streamer fishing the Main Branch. From memory he traced a map of an historic location, where a massive rock with a TU plaque honors the vision of founder Art Neumann. A nearby path led us down to a place with swift runs and deep pools, where, the Shaman said, lay some damn big fish. The river banks towered over us like the cathedral canyons of western rivers. Across the river was the landing of the Ginger Quill Camp where Ernie Schwiebert studied nymphs over Scotch.

After two hours of hard fishing, with only a handful of hits to show for our efforts, this correspondent called it a day, and closed out the Opening Weekend.

Princess Petra.

Our wonderful new addition to our family, courtesy of American Brittany Rescue. Don't you dare try to take her duck away!

Is David Frum Right?

Partly. Frum has criticized the GOP for adopting a Nyet! strategy on healthcare, supposedly fomented by the Radio Talkosphere. Frum noted that the version of Obamacare that was signed is very similar to Massachussetts' Romneycare, so the GOP was a trifle hypocritical in their opposition.

Frum is right to claim that a Nyet! strategy was wrong, but it wasn't wrong for Obamacare. That mess will end up at least as bad as Romneycare, where costs are skyrocketing. But the GOP did fail to understand after the 2004 election that the healthcare problem was a nasty boil that would be quickly coming to a head (yuck, sorry about that). Republicans could have moved a free-market, small government-oriented package of solutions in 2005 (something like the McCain plan of 2008) that would have forced the Dem's hand and preempted the crypto-socialist "solution" that we are now stuck with.

Why was this approach not pursued? Perhaps it was because the GOP believed, as Democrats would have hoped, that such a proposal would have been transmogrified into the Middle-Class Black-Tar Heroin of a massive government entitlement. But the risk should have been taken; at least Republicans would have controlled the process. Ultimately one should ask those visionary ex-leaders of the former GOP House majority, Tom Delay and Dennis Hastert, and George Bush, father of the disasterously underfunded Medicare drug program.

How Dare They Cut Earnings!

Congresscritter Henry Waxman, enraged that Catepillar, John Deere, AT&T and other corporations have restated lower earnings to reflect higher immediate costs from Obamacare, will be holding an Inquisition to personally berate them for their impertinent honesty.

Let the Party Bee-Gin!

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow gleefully laid out the rain of goodies to be expected from Obamacare. As a public service we provide some commentary and include some of the other events that will occur during the first few years of the rollout (points marked with * indicate reforms that are commonly accepted as part of less intrusive solutions):

2010:

• Tax credits for small businesses to provide health care for their employees*. May not be sufficient to compensate for increased rates (see below).
• Kids can stay on their parents' plan until age 26; if the increment in rates is not onerous, this could improve the financials.*
• More money for seniors' drugs by plundering Medicare Advantage.
• High-risk pools established.* May or may not raise rates.
• Ban on "previous condition" denials for kids*. This is likely to raise rates.
• Health Savings Accounts gutted; maximum HSA deduction reduced by 60%
• Pro-abortion advocates likely to overturn "Stupak's Order".
• Patching the Medicare provider payment reductions eats all of this year's "savings" and them some.
• The new enormous federal healthcare bureaucracy begins to be assembled, to join all of the other federal government healthcare bureaucracies (Medicare, Medicaid, VA, Military, SCHIP, Indian Health, to name a few).
• The IRS begins hiring its required additional 16,000 agents.
• Pork deals to garner Congresscritters' votes explode like fiscal grenades throughout the year.
• Student loan program converted in government monopoly, except in North Dakota. On the surface, it seems that this has nothing to do with health care. However, it is expected that the profit made on these loans, generated from the interest rate difference between borrowing and loaning, will be part of the advertised "health care savings".

2011:

• Long-term care insurance program established; minimum 5 years of premiums required, but who is going to say no to Grandma?
• Free preventative care for Medicare recipients. Likely to raise rates.
• Annual $2.5B "Pay to Play" charges to drug makers begins.
• Insurance companies must pay out 80-85% of premiums in health care expenses, or must refund difference to policy holders. Most health insurance companies have profit margins at or under 5%, so increased overhead costs to implement new federal rules and mandates are likely to lead to losses in intial years. The federal government's profit ceilings on insurance companies begins their transformation into utility companies.

2013:

• Excise tax on medical devices begins.
• New Medicare taxes on the "Super-Rich" (couples with incomes greater than $250K)
• New tax on dividends and interest income.
• Pilot programs to test "bundled care" Medicare payment programs.

The Mount Vernon Statement.

Getting back to basics.

Come An' Git It!

Health Care Fer All? Sure! Let the taxin' bee-gin! Them savin's? In them Out Years! (read: when Hell freezes up!) Too "sceered" to pass it the way we all larned in school? Sure, sneek it under the door! This is just too important! Now brang on that-there Ammisty! Thar's another 20 million fer Health Care! Maw, git that printin' press a'churnin!

Shame!

Yes, shame and disdain on Senator Jim Bunning for his arrogance in believing that when Congers enacted "Pay As You Go" budgeting that they meant it.

So What?

Today the President gave yet another speech on healthcare, supposedly to announce inclusion of ideas championed by GOP Healthcarewonks into the "process". But, ahem...nothing in the present process has changed: the two chambers of Congress have only their respective bills to negotiate, which are the same as they were when they were passed. Today's exercise by the President is akin to ad men trumpeting that a sink cleanser now has green disinfecting power, hoping that consumers forgot that it had always been green.

Cue the Sharks...

Any proposal to "privatize" a portion of the Social Security program is met with pitchforks and torches from the Left. They kvetch about gambling with the old folks' money in the stock market. However, they feel it is perfectly reasonable to lure savers and investors into the promise of a "guaranteed annuity" from the Gummint in exchange for taking their IRAs and 401(k) accounts to plug the federal debt, or to purchase annuities from that bastion of financial strategery, AIG. Newt Gingrich and Peter Ferrara consider where this may lead.

Some Social Security Math.

Just a point of reference for understanding what is reasonable in the discussing Social Security reform: under the present system, consider a person enters the workforce at 25, with a starting yearly income of $20K, an annual raise of 5% (inflation + merit), and an employee+employer deduction for Social Security of 12.4%, using the current cap of $106,800. Upon retirement at 65 the citizen will have a personal savings of about $290K. The retiree living to 85 will then have a monthly income from this savings of about $1210.

Now, allow this stagnant savings be partially invested (like the federal employee program) such that it results in an annual return of just 2%. The personal savings after forty years will be $390K, for a monthly income (assuming no additional growth) of $1625, more than 30% higher than the stagnant system. Assuming a 1% return on the savings will result in a personal savings of $335K. Of course, these calculations assume that the government didn't spend the money on something else, i.e., they didn't steal it.

The Rant Heard 'Round the World.

February 19, 2009: the day we finally said: NO! It's not about birth certificates, secret socialist plans, or all that other nonsense. It is about preserving the greatest economy in history by insisting on responsibility by individuals, corporations, and the government. The true message is not partisan, it's about accepting some very bitter medicine: serious and painful reform on all government spending, entitlements and otherwise, living with one's means, and allowing the market to reckon with foolishness.

GOP: Come Out Swinging.

The President has asked for a sit down with GOP leaders on healthcare. Call his bluff: come in with a lean, free-market plan that solves the problems that all agree upon.

Oh, If Everyday Could Be a Snowday!

The Gummint will be closed tomorrow because of "The Big Snowjob" (not to be confused with "The Budget Freeze", but the latter does possess qualities of the former). Perhaps Mother Nature can do what the Congresscritters can't: restrain the growth and spending of the federal government.

Walking with Brahms.

The University of Michigan's Music faculty perform recitals regularly; this afternoon featured Brahms's Piano Quartet in A Major, Opus 26 (1862). The opening, Allegro non troppo, carries one away to wet, windswept ridge (well, that's where it carried us). Here is part of the opening, as performed by Sviatoslav Richter and the Borodin Quartet.

The Truth That Nobody Dares To Speak.

Except for David Rosenberg, as reprinted by one of the best financial websites in the world, Minyanville:

The current level of US outstanding nonfederal debt is $27 trillion, which is astounding both in absolute terms and even more so relative to nonfederal GDP -- a 206% ratio. It is down fractionally from the 208% peak, but here is the rub. If mean-reversion means that we get back to some norm of the 1990s, then we are talking about the need to extinguish $8 trillion of nonfederal debt. The only question is how this happens, not if. If we’re talking about mean reverting to the very stable trend of the 1960s and 1970s, then the credit contraction is very likely to exceed $11 trillion.

How do you extinguish debt? Well, most households do so by deferring new purchasing in favor of paying off previous purchasing. Credit will continue to be tight, regardless of government machinations to make it otherwise. Therefore, we're not expecting the consumer to stampede the stores anytime soon. This is going to be a long, painful recovery, but it was a heck of spree that got us to this point.

The Definition of Insanity.

Small businesses not expanding? Well, let's give them the Subprime Special!

Speaking of Fannie and Freddie... - Stephen Spruiell - The Corner on National Review Online

Bill Gates, Red China Doll.


Bill Gates has pooh-poohed concerns about internet censorship in Red China (yes, we still think that way), undercutting Secretary of State Clinton calls for greater freedom of expression there and Google's claims that Red Chinese operatives have conducted cyber espionage against its employees. Gates claimed that internet censorship in Red China is "limited", comparable to internet restrictions that exist in other countries, and easy to bypass. "[And] so you've got to decide: Do you want to obey the laws of the countries you're in, or not?" said Mr. Gates. Yes, Mr. Gates you certainly have asked the right question. Alas, throw another industrialist on the Totalitarian Collaborator Pile.

Piracy on the Internet Sea.

The Financial Times reports that hackers are targeting friends of Google workers, compromising their social networking accounts to lure the Google personnel into clicking on their spyware links.
The source of these attacks? From the article: "the evidence pointed to a government-sponsored effort that only large spy agencies or perhaps some of the most advanced big companies could have withstood, experts said. China on Monday described accusations it was behind cyberattacks as 'groundless'."

It is our opinion that China is engaged in economic warfare through a massive effort to steal proprietary information, and refusing to adhere to world-accepted agreements on intellectual property and trade (note the recent steel dumping episode). Our dependence on their "beneficience" in buying our debt cripples our ability to retaliate in force.

Preztel Tax Policy.

Larry Kudlow asserts that the "Bank Tax" is just blatant crony capitalism. We agree:
Obama Rewards Losers, Punishes Winners by Larry Kudlow on National Review Online

An Apocalypse.

Official sources are now estimating 140,000 dead in Haiti. God, please clear a path of rescue for these poor people.

The Volt's Electric Appetite.

Electric cars are being offered as die Wunderlösung to solve our transportation system's dependence on petroleum. But what would the wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles require in terms of increased electricity production?

We will take as a representative electric vehicle the Chevy Volt. The Volt is expected to operate such that it will consume 8 kW-hr to provide 40 miles of driving (which is a reasonable assumption for a day's mileage of a passenger car). The total distance driven in passenger cars and light trucks in the United States in 2008 was about 2.4T miles. If half of that distance were to be driven in Chevy Volts, the total required electricity to support this yearly travel budget would be about 240M MW-hr.

Note that the total electricity generated in the US in 2008 was about 4.2B MW-hr, so we would need to increase our generation capacity by about 6% to support the widespread use of electric vehicles. In terms of electric-power generation plants, this would mean we would need to build either 20 new nuclear-fueled plants, or 60 more coal-fired plants. This is a substantial investment in infrastructure; a typical coal-fired power plant runs about $1B to build. By the way, using the effective yearly output from a 2MW wind turbine, the number of turbines one would need to provide this electricity would be about 40,000 at a cost of about $120B just to install the turbines. Good luck with that.

One could argue that the energy needs for electric vehicles could be met with the present inventory of generating plants combined with an diligent electricity conservation program. Maybe, but it will take some fancy footwork when combined with the needs for increased electrical power to support robust economic growth.

Then there's the matter of the onerous cost of electric vehicles, but that's another detail the Ultragreen crowd likes to sweep under rug.

Thank God It's Friday!

A Young Man's Return to God.

Our reading so far has told of his retreat from Christian belief, through a modus operandi that was all too familiar from our own adolescence: Creeping Pessimism. The journey of a kindred soul!