Pointless, Valueless Theater.

Tony Hayward, CEO of BP, is not an Oil Man. His pedigree is finance, serving in the corporation's Mergers and Acquisitions department for the majority of tenure at BP. In today's testimony to Congers, it was very clear that Hayward was not there to answer questions specific to his expertise, but was summoned so that Congresscritters could look good to the "little people" by ranting at him. Not that they understood the significance or triviality most of the technical questions they threw at him. If we were offered a seat along side the Critters, we would have asked the following questions:

1. When you became CEO of BP and directed a "laser-like focus" on improving safety, at that time were you made aware of any drilling, production, refining, or petroleum transportation activity that was operating with unacceptable bounds of safety, regardless of whether they met federal oversight requirements? For example, were you told that the overall approach to drilling procedures could allow operations with an amplified risk of failure or accident? Were there operations that you unilaterally halted because of safety concerns?
2. As CEO you receives safety briefings that were at the highest level, with little technical detail for evaluation. Basically, you are given "red light - green light" status reports of safety initiatives. Who in the BP organization does have the responsibility to evaluate the technical criteria to assess whether BP operations were improving in safety? What reports were you getting from these personnel about the state of drilling safety?
3. What conditions did you place on your subcontractors, Transocean and Haliburton, in decision-making for safe practices on the rig? Did either have veto power over procedures directed by BP personnel?
4. What are the experience requirements for BP rig managers? Does a single BP manager have authority for rig operations?
5. What direction or guidance were you given by MMS as part of your improved safety initiatives? Did you solicit input from MMS for this? If so, what was their response?

These hearings can be quite valuable in determining the structure of risk manangement and decision making for operations of BP and the other producers in the Gulf, and the interaction of MMS. Or they can be useless theater.

Calling Gene Kranz!

There are Oil Men who know what to do. We don't care who they work for or where they live, pound on their doors and get them in here!

Yup, Never Let a Crisis Go to Waste.

The Wall Street Journal comments on how the Administration used the good name of oil engineering experts to push ideology.

The Failure of Risk Management.

Nansen Saleri, former head of reservoir management for Saudi Aramco, provides a non-hysterical, apolitical, and sober analysis of oilshore oil drilling in the shadow of the Deepwater Horizon accident. His claim is that the principal failure that lead to the catastrophe was that of effective risk management. Saleri also reminds us that shutting down offshore drilling may actually increase the risk of another oil spill from much more vulnerable oil tankers.

Dim-Bulb Debbie Strikes Again.

Michigan's Junior Senator, Debbie Stabenow continues to embarass her state. We are not inclined to ad hominem attacks on congresscritters. But we'll suspend our restraint for this one, extraordinary moment: Debbie Stabenow is a Chucklehead. She believes that the power, dignity, and solemn gravity of her office should be used to call for the Commissioner of Baseball to overrule the umpire who denied a Tiger pitcher a perfect game:

MACKINAC (ISLAND) (sic)– U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) today made the following statement urging Major League Baseball Commissioner Bud Selig to invoke the “Best Interests of the Game” clause to declare Armando Galarraga’s performance perfect.

“Last night’s performance deserves its place in the record books. It is clear that Commissioner Selig should make an exception in this case and invoke the ‘best interests of the game clause’ to reflect Armando Galarraga’s perfect game for the Detroit Tigers.” – U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow.

Will some human, animal, vegetable or mineral, take up votes and by opposing this twit, end her Senatorial career? Please?

The "Competence" Theme Snowballs.

Tom Coburn's appearance on a recent Morning Joe says it all. But if you need additional ammunition, read Peggy Noonan's recent WSJ column. But to be fair, this is problem is beyond Mr. Obama or any president. It's a loss of vision by our leadership - and the electorate - of what constitutes conscientious stewardship of our Republic.

Bonding Over Brookies.

Yesterday we took the younger son and his girlfriend flyfishing for brook trout on the North Branch of the Ausable. The single day's drive was brutal, the sun was penetrating, the air was hot, the water was low, and the fishing was so-so. But the experience was priceless. The girlfriend, being a flyfishing greenhorn, naturally caught the nicest fish of the day. The son, full of pomp and hubris, naturally was skunked. Your correspondent held his own, but acknowledged that his pace to wade a stream was not quite that of the young folk ("SLOW DOWN! Flyfishing is not a scavenger hunt, son!"). Perhaps fishing colleagues would observe our tendency toward the phelgmatic, though. Our heart skipped a beat when a very nice brown cruised through the pool we were working. He was searching for a cool shady spot and was having none of our offerings.

After five hours of hard fishing, we pulled off our waders and paid a visit with Grandpa and Grandma; caught up with local happenings (forest fires, song birds, and variae), then dined at one of the storied dives of Northern Michigan - the Whitehouse Diner in Clare.

A wonderful day spent with people we love!

An Emerging Theme.

Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal was interviewed by ABC News' Jake Tapper about the strange laxidasical behavior by the United States Government regarding the protection of his state's coastal wetlands. Aha! thought Jake, doesn't this contradict his conservative view of limited government? Jindal replied:

“When government grows too big, it doesn't do its core functions properly. Absolutely, I believe in a limited government that is effective and competent in what it does. We need federal government exactly -- we need our federal government exactly for this kind of crisis.”

George Will has also jumped on this theme: asserting that a massive central government that intervenes in all aspects of the nation's life will, by corollary, be competent at the essential functions that are truly of national interest is false. Advocacy for a limited federal government is not simple ideology of Washington "doing nothing". There are roles - such as national defense or the coordination to mitigate an interstate enviromental disaster - that are appropriate for a federal government. Then there is most of the rest of what Washington believes is good value for your tax dollars.

Look for the theme of "limited and competent government" to grow in the public conversation.

Is Big Oil Undermining US Security?

Larry Kudlow has been dogging oil giants Shell, BP, and Total about selling the Pentagon refined petroleum with one hand while paying Iran for the crude with the other. That's money that goes to kill Americans in Afghanistan and build nuclear weapons.

More Bad News About Unicorns.

News reports indicate that they are close to extinction in Italy, too.

Yet Another "Emergency" Spending Bill.

Remember the bill to extend unemployment insurance for which Senator Jim Bunning had the cruelty to ask "who pays for it"? Well, get ready for another "emergency" job stimulus and tax loophole closing (tax and spend for short) bill coming from Congers. Pay as you go? Come on, that is soooo two months ago!

We are heading for a tipping point in cynicism of the people towards their government.

A Time for All Things.

Like Milton in Office Space, Utah Senator Robert Bennett just can't accept that he is being let go. The Nattering Nabobs are mourning Bennett's loss: how could the rabble* turn out such a marvelous patrician and "cut short" a stellar political career?

Because if we accept a Ruling Class, as many in the Beltway do, we are doomed. It's not a lifetime appointment; you serve at the pleasure of the people and the support of your party. Bennett, from what we can discern, has been a fine public servant. But there is a time for all things, and if he has thrived courtesy of the Utah GOP, then may wilt by them as well. Bob, make sure to take your fern on the way out, and tell Arlen Specter he has thirty minutes to collect his stuff. If you choose to run as an independent, you are free to do so. You may want to consult with Joe Lieberman.

*A gushing fan of Adlai Stevenson confessed to him, "Mr. Stevenson, all of the thinking people of America are voting for you!". "Madam", replied Stevenson, "that is not sufficient...I need a majority".

Unicorns No Longer Found in Spain!

Spain announced austerity measures, including a 5% cut in the pay of civil servants. You know, those guys that don't create wealth, just consume it? The Spanish workers, convinced that the government is hiding the unicorns in secret warehouses, have called for a national strike on June 8. Meanwhile there are plenty of free-lance unicorn hunters among the 20% of Spaniards who are currently unemployed.

Like Scrooge and his Third Shadow, we are seeing images of things that could come to pass.

EU to Greece: No More Unicorns for You.

George Will delivered a great lecture at Princeton on "The Dependency Agenda". The end result of what Will describes is now playing out in Greece.

Desert Island Economics Reading.

If you had only one short essay you could read about the financial mess, its causes and its cure, it should be "An Economy of Liars", by the Cato Institute's Gerald O'Driscoll.

Suffering Fools.

George Will has his hands full on ABC's This Week, facing such scintillating intellects as Bill Maher, Al Sharpton, and Katrina Vanderfloogle, as he argues for enforcement current federal law. What magical ordinances will "comprehensive immigration reform" possess such that it will not be necessary to confront people, with reasonable cause, to determine if they are registered legal aliens? It is a pig in a poke, and the Left knows it.

So It Begins...

This year, dedicated to the proposition that one should actually catch some fish on Opening Weekend, we set out Friday morning for a preemptive strike on North Branch of the Au Sable River (the always-open Flies Only section). We calculated that landing a brace of trout on Friday would demonstrate to the River Gods that we were no Gee-Gaws and were worthy of their plaudits and favors for Saturday.

Friday afternoon on the North Branch was spectacular. We waded to one of our favorite spots at the tag end of a Hendrickson hatch, and fish from parr to ten-inchers, both brookies and browns, were enthusiastically feeding. After catching a half-dozen or so from both species on a Borchers Special (a size 14 is the go-to fly on northern Michigan streams), the hatch and the feeding suddenly stopped. The early-season "Gentlemen's Hatch" has the quality of a fire hose being opened and closed at half-hour intervals for a few hours in the afternoon. Finally, the hose was closed off for the day, and we switched to offerings of bead-head nymphs. The action was slow. Our colleague retreated to the comfort of cabin or "Spike's Keg O'Nails" (he had taken the hatch full force earlier in the afternoon and was suffering from flyfishing shell-shock) while we committed to further fishing downstream until dusk.

In an hour we were rewarded for our persistence. Squadrons of spinners descended from overhead, Emphemerella Subvaria bombers delivering their payloads of peach-colored egg sacks to the water's surface. We had never experienced a Hendrickson spinner fall this intense, and we will never forget it. Nor will we forget the robust brookie fooled by our Rusty Spinner. With the landing of this beauty we declared Opening Weekend a success. Off to Spike's to tell Homeric tales of the Great Spinner Fall!

Saturday, the "Opener-Proper", was the quintessence of such days with cooler, cloudier, and windier weather. And it fished as such; it was very slow. Where were all of the fish that had made the water boil less than a full day past? An Au Sable Lesson: where there are few bugs, there will be few fish. The was no great hatch this afternoon, and correspondingly few spinners in the evening. The fish appeared content with light underwater snacking. A full-day's fishing yielded a handful of fryers taken on soft hackles and bead-head nymphs. We did catch a moment, looking down the river, where we experienced a spiritual convocation of great fish and great flyfishers past. Another memory, and we thanked God for our lives and this blessed storied place.

No Opening Weekend seems complete without a Damn Cold Rain, and it arrived on Sunday morning. As if the melancholy of facing the last leg of Opening Weekend is tough enough, Sweet Lord, this too? "Perfect for streamers!", was heard in the camp to rally morale for fishing in the cold and wet. We breakfasted on omelets, bacon, toast, and coffee, collected our gear, and then went to visit an Au Sable Shaman for guidance as to how to spend our afternoon streamer fishing the Main Branch. From memory he traced a map of an historic location, where a massive rock with a TU plaque honors the vision of founder Art Neumann. A nearby path led us down to a place with swift runs and deep pools, where, the Shaman said, lay some damn big fish. The river banks towered over us like the cathedral canyons of western rivers. Across the river was the landing of the Ginger Quill Camp where Ernie Schwiebert studied nymphs over Scotch.

After two hours of hard fishing, with only a handful of hits to show for our efforts, this correspondent called it a day, and closed out the Opening Weekend.

Princess Petra.

Our wonderful new addition to our family, courtesy of American Brittany Rescue. Don't you dare try to take her duck away!

Is David Frum Right?

Partly. Frum has criticized the GOP for adopting a Nyet! strategy on healthcare, supposedly fomented by the Radio Talkosphere. Frum noted that the version of Obamacare that was signed is very similar to Massachussetts' Romneycare, so the GOP was a trifle hypocritical in their opposition.

Frum is right to claim that a Nyet! strategy was wrong, but it wasn't wrong for Obamacare. That mess will end up at least as bad as Romneycare, where costs are skyrocketing. But the GOP did fail to understand after the 2004 election that the healthcare problem was a nasty boil that would be quickly coming to a head (yuck, sorry about that). Republicans could have moved a free-market, small government-oriented package of solutions in 2005 (something like the McCain plan of 2008) that would have forced the Dem's hand and preempted the crypto-socialist "solution" that we are now stuck with.

Why was this approach not pursued? Perhaps it was because the GOP believed, as Democrats would have hoped, that such a proposal would have been transmogrified into the Middle-Class Black-Tar Heroin of a massive government entitlement. But the risk should have been taken; at least Republicans would have controlled the process. Ultimately one should ask those visionary ex-leaders of the former GOP House majority, Tom Delay and Dennis Hastert, and George Bush, father of the disasterously underfunded Medicare drug program.

How Dare They Cut Earnings!

Congresscritter Henry Waxman, enraged that Catepillar, John Deere, AT&T and other corporations have restated lower earnings to reflect higher immediate costs from Obamacare, will be holding an Inquisition to personally berate them for their impertinent honesty.

Let the Party Bee-Gin!

MSNBC's Rachel Maddow gleefully laid out the rain of goodies to be expected from Obamacare. As a public service we provide some commentary and include some of the other events that will occur during the first few years of the rollout (points marked with * indicate reforms that are commonly accepted as part of less intrusive solutions):

2010:

• Tax credits for small businesses to provide health care for their employees*. May not be sufficient to compensate for increased rates (see below).
• Kids can stay on their parents' plan until age 26; if the increment in rates is not onerous, this could improve the financials.*
• More money for seniors' drugs by plundering Medicare Advantage.
• High-risk pools established.* May or may not raise rates.
• Ban on "previous condition" denials for kids*. This is likely to raise rates.
• Health Savings Accounts gutted; maximum HSA deduction reduced by 60%
• Pro-abortion advocates likely to overturn "Stupak's Order".
• Patching the Medicare provider payment reductions eats all of this year's "savings" and them some.
• The new enormous federal healthcare bureaucracy begins to be assembled, to join all of the other federal government healthcare bureaucracies (Medicare, Medicaid, VA, Military, SCHIP, Indian Health, to name a few).
• The IRS begins hiring its required additional 16,000 agents.
• Pork deals to garner Congresscritters' votes explode like fiscal grenades throughout the year.
• Student loan program converted in government monopoly, except in North Dakota. On the surface, it seems that this has nothing to do with health care. However, it is expected that the profit made on these loans, generated from the interest rate difference between borrowing and loaning, will be part of the advertised "health care savings".

2011:

• Long-term care insurance program established; minimum 5 years of premiums required, but who is going to say no to Grandma?
• Free preventative care for Medicare recipients. Likely to raise rates.
• Annual $2.5B "Pay to Play" charges to drug makers begins.
• Insurance companies must pay out 80-85% of premiums in health care expenses, or must refund difference to policy holders. Most health insurance companies have profit margins at or under 5%, so increased overhead costs to implement new federal rules and mandates are likely to lead to losses in intial years. The federal government's profit ceilings on insurance companies begins their transformation into utility companies.

2013:

• Excise tax on medical devices begins.
• New Medicare taxes on the "Super-Rich" (couples with incomes greater than $250K)
• New tax on dividends and interest income.
• Pilot programs to test "bundled care" Medicare payment programs.

The Mount Vernon Statement.

Getting back to basics.

Come An' Git It!

Health Care Fer All? Sure! Let the taxin' bee-gin! Them savin's? In them Out Years! (read: when Hell freezes up!) Too "sceered" to pass it the way we all larned in school? Sure, sneek it under the door! This is just too important! Now brang on that-there Ammisty! Thar's another 20 million fer Health Care! Maw, git that printin' press a'churnin!

Shame!

Yes, shame and disdain on Senator Jim Bunning for his arrogance in believing that when Congers enacted "Pay As You Go" budgeting that they meant it.

So What?

Today the President gave yet another speech on healthcare, supposedly to announce inclusion of ideas championed by GOP Healthcarewonks into the "process". But, ahem...nothing in the present process has changed: the two chambers of Congress have only their respective bills to negotiate, which are the same as they were when they were passed. Today's exercise by the President is akin to ad men trumpeting that a sink cleanser now has green disinfecting power, hoping that consumers forgot that it had always been green.

Cue the Sharks...

Any proposal to "privatize" a portion of the Social Security program is met with pitchforks and torches from the Left. They kvetch about gambling with the old folks' money in the stock market. However, they feel it is perfectly reasonable to lure savers and investors into the promise of a "guaranteed annuity" from the Gummint in exchange for taking their IRAs and 401(k) accounts to plug the federal debt, or to purchase annuities from that bastion of financial strategery, AIG. Newt Gingrich and Peter Ferrara consider where this may lead.

Some Social Security Math.

Just a point of reference for understanding what is reasonable in the discussing Social Security reform: under the present system, consider a person enters the workforce at 25, with a starting yearly income of $20K, an annual raise of 5% (inflation + merit), and an employee+employer deduction for Social Security of 12.4%, using the current cap of $106,800. Upon retirement at 65 the citizen will have a personal savings of about $290K. The retiree living to 85 will then have a monthly income from this savings of about $1210.

Now, allow this stagnant savings be partially invested (like the federal employee program) such that it results in an annual return of just 2%. The personal savings after forty years will be $390K, for a monthly income (assuming no additional growth) of $1625, more than 30% higher than the stagnant system. Assuming a 1% return on the savings will result in a personal savings of $335K. Of course, these calculations assume that the government didn't spend the money on something else, i.e., they didn't steal it.

The Rant Heard 'Round the World.

February 19, 2009: the day we finally said: NO! It's not about birth certificates, secret socialist plans, or all that other nonsense. It is about preserving the greatest economy in history by insisting on responsibility by individuals, corporations, and the government. The true message is not partisan, it's about accepting some very bitter medicine: serious and painful reform on all government spending, entitlements and otherwise, living with one's means, and allowing the market to reckon with foolishness.

GOP: Come Out Swinging.

The President has asked for a sit down with GOP leaders on healthcare. Call his bluff: come in with a lean, free-market plan that solves the problems that all agree upon.

Oh, If Everyday Could Be a Snowday!

The Gummint will be closed tomorrow because of "The Big Snowjob" (not to be confused with "The Budget Freeze", but the latter does possess qualities of the former). Perhaps Mother Nature can do what the Congresscritters can't: restrain the growth and spending of the federal government.

Walking with Brahms.

The University of Michigan's Music faculty perform recitals regularly; this afternoon featured Brahms's Piano Quartet in A Major, Opus 26 (1862). The opening, Allegro non troppo, carries one away to wet, windswept ridge (well, that's where it carried us). Here is part of the opening, as performed by Sviatoslav Richter and the Borodin Quartet.

The Truth That Nobody Dares To Speak.

Except for David Rosenberg, as reprinted by one of the best financial websites in the world, Minyanville:

The current level of US outstanding nonfederal debt is $27 trillion, which is astounding both in absolute terms and even more so relative to nonfederal GDP -- a 206% ratio. It is down fractionally from the 208% peak, but here is the rub. If mean-reversion means that we get back to some norm of the 1990s, then we are talking about the need to extinguish $8 trillion of nonfederal debt. The only question is how this happens, not if. If we’re talking about mean reverting to the very stable trend of the 1960s and 1970s, then the credit contraction is very likely to exceed $11 trillion.

How do you extinguish debt? Well, most households do so by deferring new purchasing in favor of paying off previous purchasing. Credit will continue to be tight, regardless of government machinations to make it otherwise. Therefore, we're not expecting the consumer to stampede the stores anytime soon. This is going to be a long, painful recovery, but it was a heck of spree that got us to this point.

The Definition of Insanity.

Small businesses not expanding? Well, let's give them the Subprime Special!

Speaking of Fannie and Freddie... - Stephen Spruiell - The Corner on National Review Online

Bill Gates, Red China Doll.


Bill Gates has pooh-poohed concerns about internet censorship in Red China (yes, we still think that way), undercutting Secretary of State Clinton calls for greater freedom of expression there and Google's claims that Red Chinese operatives have conducted cyber espionage against its employees. Gates claimed that internet censorship in Red China is "limited", comparable to internet restrictions that exist in other countries, and easy to bypass. "[And] so you've got to decide: Do you want to obey the laws of the countries you're in, or not?" said Mr. Gates. Yes, Mr. Gates you certainly have asked the right question. Alas, throw another industrialist on the Totalitarian Collaborator Pile.

Piracy on the Internet Sea.

The Financial Times reports that hackers are targeting friends of Google workers, compromising their social networking accounts to lure the Google personnel into clicking on their spyware links.
The source of these attacks? From the article: "the evidence pointed to a government-sponsored effort that only large spy agencies or perhaps some of the most advanced big companies could have withstood, experts said. China on Monday described accusations it was behind cyberattacks as 'groundless'."

It is our opinion that China is engaged in economic warfare through a massive effort to steal proprietary information, and refusing to adhere to world-accepted agreements on intellectual property and trade (note the recent steel dumping episode). Our dependence on their "beneficience" in buying our debt cripples our ability to retaliate in force.

Preztel Tax Policy.

Larry Kudlow asserts that the "Bank Tax" is just blatant crony capitalism. We agree:
Obama Rewards Losers, Punishes Winners by Larry Kudlow on National Review Online

An Apocalypse.

Official sources are now estimating 140,000 dead in Haiti. God, please clear a path of rescue for these poor people.

The Volt's Electric Appetite.

Electric cars are being offered as die Wunderlösung to solve our transportation system's dependence on petroleum. But what would the wide-scale adoption of electric vehicles require in terms of increased electricity production?

We will take as a representative electric vehicle the Chevy Volt. The Volt is expected to operate such that it will consume 8 kW-hr to provide 40 miles of driving (which is a reasonable assumption for a day's mileage of a passenger car). The total distance driven in passenger cars and light trucks in the United States in 2008 was about 2.4T miles. If half of that distance were to be driven in Chevy Volts, the total required electricity to support this yearly travel budget would be about 240M MW-hr.

Note that the total electricity generated in the US in 2008 was about 4.2B MW-hr, so we would need to increase our generation capacity by about 6% to support the widespread use of electric vehicles. In terms of electric-power generation plants, this would mean we would need to build either 20 new nuclear-fueled plants, or 60 more coal-fired plants. This is a substantial investment in infrastructure; a typical coal-fired power plant runs about $1B to build. By the way, using the effective yearly output from a 2MW wind turbine, the number of turbines one would need to provide this electricity would be about 40,000 at a cost of about $120B just to install the turbines. Good luck with that.

One could argue that the energy needs for electric vehicles could be met with the present inventory of generating plants combined with an diligent electricity conservation program. Maybe, but it will take some fancy footwork when combined with the needs for increased electrical power to support robust economic growth.

Then there's the matter of the onerous cost of electric vehicles, but that's another detail the Ultragreen crowd likes to sweep under rug.

Thank God It's Friday!

A Young Man's Return to God.

Our reading so far has told of his retreat from Christian belief, through a modus operandi that was all too familiar from our own adolescence: Creeping Pessimism. The journey of a kindred soul!

Christmas Eve, 2009.

Titus 2:11-14: For the grace of God has appeared, bringing salvation to all, training us to renounce impiety and worldly passions, and in the present age to live lives that are self-controlled, upright, and godly, while we wait for the blessed hope and the manifestation of the glory of our great God and Savior, Jesus Christ. He it is who gave himself for us that he might redeem us from all iniquity and purify for himself a people of his own who are zealous for good deeds.

God, we know we can be a better people. We thank you tonight for providing the light for our path to you.

(Medieval stained glass depicting the Nativity, Claremont Cathedral, France)

Cody, Our Beloved Brittany Spaniel, 1999-2009.

(shown here with Grandpa, Thanksgiving 2009)

"The one absolutely unselfish friend that man can have in this selfish world, the one that never deserts him, the one that never proves ungrateful or treacherous is his dog. A man's dog stands by him in prosperity and in poverty, in health and in sickness. He will sleep on the cold ground, where the wintry winds blow and the snow drives fiercely, if only he may be near his master's side. He will kiss the hand that has no food to offer. He will lick the wounds and sores that come in encounters with the roughness of the world. He guards the sleep of his pauper master as if he were a prince. When all other friends desert, he remains. When riches take wings, and reputation falls to pieces, he is as constant in his love as the sun in its journey through the heavens.

"If fortune drives the master forth, an outcast in the world, friendless and homeless, the faithful dog asks no higher privilege than that of accompanying him, to guard him against danger, to fight against his enemies. And when the last scene of all comes, and death takes his master in its embrace and his body is laid away in the cold ground, no matter if all other friends pursue their way, there by the graveside will the noble dog be found, his head between his paws, his eyes sad, but open in alert watchfulness, faithful and true even in death".

George Graham Vest - c. 1855

A Pavlovian Response.

On the Cigar Afficionado forums we recently read of a comrade, enjoying a Hoya de Monterey in Maine's great outdoors, confronted by some indignant dowagers who claimed that the odor of his cigar had wrecked their soiree some twenty yards away. Our friend went to great lengths in hydrodynamical and micro-climatical analysis to determine that in no way could the aroma of his stogie have reached the ladies in perceptible concentrations. To which we replied:

"The actions by the Ladies of Disapproval had nothing to do with any real olfactory sensation. They saw you smoking. They have been trained by the Mass Culture, much like Pavlov's dogs, to associate the visual cue of cigar smoking with disgusting smells, and so their brain invented a reaction. You should have asked them to play a game of solitare, waited for the Queen of Diamonds to appear, and reprogrammed them.

"In these times with so few predilections for which the State permits its citizens to possess reservations that when one comes along, such as cigar smoking, where the State actually sanctions disapproval you can expect persecution with a ferocity not unlike the burning of witches."

Another State-sanctioned persecution? Perhaps consider the previous post...

An Appeal to Heaven.

Recently, we have been reacquainted ourselves for the joys of hunting and the shooting sports. In the course our adventures we have also rediscovered the enormous separation between the stratum of our society that enjoy and cherish their rights to firearms possession and that which regard these rights as tasteless, immoral, and threatening; something to be suppressed for the good of all.

As our society falls deeper under the spell of lawyers, ersatz TV-psychologists, behaviorists, and social engineers, we fear the pressure to solve our "problems" by racheting up gun control laws will become unstoppable. It certainly is a far easier to do so than to address the deeper problems of pandemic personal disfunction and the enabling milieu.

So When Can We Call It Terrorism?

Victor Davis Hanson provides sobering context for the attack at Fort Hood:

...some 20 other [Islamist] killers [besides Hasan] since 9/11 [who] have shot, stabbed, or run over innocents at malls, airline counters, military facilities, and Jewish-affiliated centers.

We have wondered with incredulity how the elites in the West could have been so silent about the total evil of Stalinism. Are we reliving those times?

Truly, a Clunker.

Edmunds.com recently announced their estimate of the cost to Mr. Taxpayer of the the Obama "Clunkers" auto purchase incentive program. It came in a whopping $24K per vehicle. In related news, the estimated cost per job "saved or created" by this year's Spendulus Bill was at least $390K, based on the spending of $250B to support 640K jobs (source: WSJ).

Whither Human Spaceflight?

The Augustine Committee has released its report on the future of the United States' manned space program, concluding that either we adopt more ambitious goals for risking human life, or abandon the effort. In, particular: "the Committe concluded that the ultimate goal of exploration is to chart a path for human expansion into the solar system". We concur. We have considered what ultimate fate awaits human freedoms and democracy in a world with an exploding population, a diminishing supply of material and spiritual sustenance, and a metastasizing theocratic movement of intolerance and hatred for Western civilization. It is not a sanguine forecast. We believe it is no coincidence that the political revolution that resulted in the most supreme expression of human liberty occurred in a New World, where the principal challenge was to carve a free society out of a wilderness. When this experiment was attempted in the Old World, with its centuries-old social and economic castes, it degenerated into score-settling masquerading as "social justice". Islamofacism is the most dangerous modern variant now threatening civilization, while the infatuation with statism in our country is a less overtly murderous but no less noxious trend. So let us say farewell, sail to Mars, plant Old Glory, and build a Newer World.

Tough Love.

Mark 10:17-31

10:17 As he was setting out on a journey, a man ran up and knelt before him, and asked him, "Good Teacher, what must I do to inherit eternal life?"

10:18 Jesus said to him, "Why do you call me good? No one is good but God alone.

10:19 You know the commandments: 'You shall not murder; You shall not
commit adultery; You shall not steal; You shall not bear false witness; You shall not defraud; Honor your father and mother.'"

10:20 He said to him, "Teacher, I have kept all these since my youth."

10:21 Jesus, looking at him, loved him and said, "You lack one thing; go, sell what you own, and give the money to the poor, and you will have treasure in heaven; then come, follow me."

10:22 When he heard this, he was shocked and went away grieving, for he had many possessions.

10:23 Then Jesus looked around and said to his disciples, "How hard it will be for those who have wealth to enter the kingdom of God!"

We will not delude ourselves with any sort of "yes, but..." response. We will ask for God's guidance in living our lives to do the most good.

America's Response to the Nobel Committee.

Problems with Healthcare Reform in Massachusetts.

The Boston Globe reports that despite the existence of state laws that mandate coverage and to control costs, as well as extensive participation by non-profit insurers, medical insurance premiums will rise about 10% in the coming year. The article also notes that one unintended consequence of required coverage in the state has been the deluge of physician office visits for physical examinations and other testing. Another substantial component of the cost increase is the movement of the bulk of baby-boomers into older age, accompanied by increased use of medical services and products. Too bad we can't legislate a moratorium on aging, but perhaps this Congress will try.

Chasin' That Demon of the Thin Air...

On October 14 1947, Chuck Yeager became the first human being to travel faster than the speed of sound, piloting the Bell X-1 over the high desert of California. So let us lift a glass of fine sippin' whisky at Pancho's Happy Bottom Riding Club in thanks to God for creating such men. (the video is a clip from The Right Stuff, the 1983 film adaptation of Tom Wolfe's great book).

Freedoms Continue to Erode.

Los Angeles County has now banned outdoor smoking, and New York City is considering a similar ordinance. Any claims of collateral damage to innocent bystanders from outdoor second-hand smoke is laughable. This is pure bullying by the Aesthetic Elites.

Clunker Math.

A good friend made the following observation. A "clunker" that gets 12 mpg, driven 16,000 miles in a year consumes about 1300 gallons of gasoline, while a replacement car at 30 mpg uses about 550 gallons. So retiring a million clunkers will save about 750 million gallons of gasoline, equivalent to 37.5 million barrels of oil (a barrel is normally distilled to yield about 50% gasoline). At $70 a barrel, this means we are spending well in excess of $4B in clunker funding to save $2.7B in petroleum imports this year. This calculation is being very generous in estimating oil savings; the net mpg difference of the clunkers program is substantially smaller, and other distilled petroleum products need the crude oil, too. The clunkers program would have been better run by the Department of Agriculture, for they have extensive experience running subsidy programs.

Perhaps the Apocalypse Is Imminent?

We have always pooh-poohed doomsayers. But then we saw this. Perhaps we should get our affairs in order.

More on The Gathering Storm.

In a sense, the health-care debate and the foreign-policy debacle are two sides of the same coin: For Britain and other great powers, the decision to build a hugely expensive welfare state at home entailed inevitably a long retreat from responsibilities abroad, with a thousand small betrayals of peripheral allies along the way. - Mark Steyn

Leftist Polemics 101.

Andrew Breitbart appeared on Bill Maher's "Real Time", along with (self-)celebrated social critic Michael Eric Dyson*. The results were as one would have expected.

It was an exercise of textbook leftist polemics. To win a debate, you must control the arguement. To control the arguement, you must control the language. As when Dyson defines what Breitbart says as racist code.

Two Russians are on a train, and one asks the other, "where are you going, comrade"? "Kiev", answers the other. "Liar!" shouts the inquisitor, "You say you are going to Kiev so that I will think you are going to Moscow when you in fact are going to Kiev! So why do you lie?"

*Dyson's new book he is now hawking is called "Can You Hear Me Now?: The Inspiration, Wisdom, and Insight of Michael Eric Dyson".

Varsity, Down the Field...

The University of Michigan Bentley Historical Library has a wonderful collection of old Wolverine football game program cover art.

The Gathering Storm.

The President has declared that the "defining struggle" for America's youth is...health care reform. Not delusions such as defending freedom and supporting our friends in the world who cherish freedom as well.

The President has now reneged on missile defense agreements with Poland and the Czech Republic, embarrassing their pro-NATO governments, and making them second-class citizens of the Atlantic Alliance. It also raises the specter of a Russian "sphere of influence" reclaiming control over liberated Eastern Europe. This is done with the hope of pleasing the Russians so they may be more cooperative on stopping Iran's nuclearization. Fat chance for that.

David Frum summarizes the Pollyanna foreign policy of the Administration in The Week magazine, and it's quite discouraging.

Out of the Woods?

Kevin Depew of Minyanville presents a very sobering arguement that our financial system is still gravely wounded by debt.

Semper Liber.

September 11, 2001. We shall never forget.

The Road Divides.

The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America (ELCA) has concluded its national assembly, and the church is forever changed. The passage of the social statement on human sexuality is likely to lead to the secession of many congregations from the national church, as well as a serious schism with Lutherans in other parts of the world.

We mourn the decision of the ELCA that we believe abandons the guidance and authority of Scripture. We also pray for God to light our way along our road to Him.

Edward M. Kennedy, 1932-2009.

The "Lion of the Senate" passes from the scene, and with his passing so closes a volume on one of the most significant political families in our country's history. A man fully invested with admirable qualities, and otherwise. The New York Times features a fine, unhagiographic obituary. R.I.P.

Elvis!

If you don't get up and jump around to this one, yer dead mate!

Ah, such a fabulous outfit...

Not Enough Lipstick...

A few facts that may go a long way to explain why Obamacare is foundering:

1. An overwhelming majority of Americans find their medical care and health plans to be satisfactory, yet they are asked to support a titanic kitchen-sink program that would produce dramatic changes in the health care system.
2. The plan of HR3200 appeared out of thin air, with no prior engagement nor participation of the citizenry, and nobody seems to have an understanding of all the provisions in the 1000+ page document.
3. In the not-so-distant past the President has been a vocal advocate for a "single-payer" health care system, and has gone as far as suggesting that such a system will be implemented in a series of (imperceptible?) steps. And most people are aware of this.

There is no amount of lipstick that can beautify this pig, and there is no number of town halls, websites, speeches, or "spontaneous" rallies of support that can dissuade most Americans of their suspicions as to what they are being asked to buy.

Nuclear Ready.

Duke Energy's CEO Jim Rogers writes in the WSJ that unlike other "green" energy industries, the strong suit in America's hand in clean electricity generation is nuclear technologies.

If We Can't Get the Post Office Right...

A report on how the USPS' flood of red ink will require more cuts in services and offices.

Is Our Government Breaking Down?



(Painting: Neptune Offers the Wealth of the Sea to Venice, by Giovan Battista Tiepolo)


In the last several months we have witnessed historic events: legislation has been introduced and passed (The Bailout Bill, The Stimulus Bill, The Carbon Cap and Trade Bill, and the House Health Care Reform Bill) that possess cosmological scales in size, scope, and cost. This government intervention is so reaching and complex that our legislators now concede that they are unable to analyze and deliberate on their provisions. Yet the Administration has aggressively pushed for a fast-track process for these acts through Congress. A torrential storm of unforseen consequences from this legislation hangs like ominous black laden clouds of an approaching squall.

The process and function of our government is seizing up because of the immensity of this legislation. There is a very real danger that we will destroy republican democracy by the powerful majorities continuing to ram these behemoth bills through Congress without some thought to what they will have wrought. We cannot continue to do the business of the people in this manner.

A thousand-page bill cannot be adequately considered in a fortnight. We are reaching a natural limit to the scale and scope of how the Federal Government can intervene in our lives. It is time to back off.

Beernost.

We do not all of the facts about the incident at Professor Gates' home, so we will not comment on it. We only hope that the President does not make Bud Lite a habit. Author William Least Heat Moon refer to such swill as "liquid air". Now Arbor Brewing's "Old Number 22" is a beer men can share and cure the world's ills.

How to Wreck Health Care Reform.

Peggy Noonan writes today in the WSJ on how the President's insistence on a thousand-page, kitchen-sink "comprehensive" approach to health care reform has likely doomed it. Why can't we simply address the most pressing problems in health care coverage, such as assisting the truly needy and providing for insurance portability, where agreement can be found and does not require radical changes?

The Fundamental Principles of "Health Care Reform".

FreeOurHealthCareNow has articulated the major elements that health care reform plans must include: (i) the right to choose care providers and plans, (ii) timely, unrestricted, patient-centered care, (iii) fairness between individual insurance programs and tax-subsidized employer programs, (iv) the focus of government assistance on the truly needy, (v) portable health plans, and (vi) maximum freedom for patient decisions on care.

TARP Tsunami.

The Inspector General overseeing the TARP program will report to Congers today that the total potential exposure (i.e., the amount for which we taxpayers could be on the hook) of federal programs and departments that are "supporting" U.S. financial institutions totals $23.7T. We'll pause to let this fact sink in...

We can only respond with: this insanity must stop. The people of the United States cannot have the futures of their families held hostage by cosigning to such an apocalyptic sum.

Walter Cronkite, 1916-2009.

We were more of an NBC than CBS man, but when it came to manned spaceflight coverage, Cronkite was our choice. R.I.P.

Aesthetic Living.

Remembering Joseph Eichler's simple, elegant, and beautiful home designs of the late '50s.

Perro Caliente!

Cigar Aficionado appreciates the Noble Frankfurter.
(shown here in its most sublime instantiation, the Chicago Dog).

Independence Day, 2009.

The idea is quite unfounded that on entering into society we give up any natural right.

- Thomas Jefferson to Francis Gilmer, 1816.

Back to the Moon.

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter is returning its first images of our planetary companion. Also, the June 2009 issue of IEEE's Spectrum is devoted to a manned voyage to Mars.

The Polish Opening.

The Wall Street Journal supports our point of view on Iran.

Just Go, Please.

Rich Lowry of National Review has it right: it's not about adultery, it's about dereliction of duty. Governor Sanford, it's time to go.

It's Worse...

The Huron River is running at 1400 CFS at the Ann Arbor gauging station. A true river blow-out. We'll see how things are in a few weeks...

The Circus is in Town!

We Americans can only handle serious issues for brief periods of time. The stretch from February through June was as a geologic timescale for us, filled with Pork Bills, Pirates, North Korea, Iran, Gitmo, Carbon Taxes, Obama Motors, and National(ized) Health Care. So do we now hear calliope music in the air? Yes, indeed, the Circus is back in town, courtesy of the sad passing of Mr. Jackson. The Meatpackers will be consumed by the grisly details of the inquest, rumors, rumors about rumors, indictments, legal fistfighting over the estate, 24-hour televigils, and the massteria of the funeral, burial, tributes, riots, and the associated merchandising. A great time for a backcountry vacation or getting some of that summer reading done. A siren will signal the all clear.

Some Carbon Math.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed an heavily amended version of the Waxman-Markey "Cap and Trade" Bill, which beginning in 2012 levies a tax to emit carbon dioxide at a rate of $13 per ton. This rate will increase steadily over the years, with the goal of forcing reductions of CO2 to less than 17% of current emissions by 2050 (83% by 2020).

The CBO claims that such a tax will cost the average household only $175 in energy costs by 2020. Shall we check the numbers?

The current total US emission of CO2 is about 6400 million US tons per year. The 2012 tax on this CO2 emission will total $83B. If we assume that all of this tax ultimately will be assessed on the 185 million taxpayers in the country (all costs to utilities, manufacturing, transportation, etc. are passed on to the total taxpayer base), the total 2012 tax increase on average per taxpayer is about $450. About one third of the taxpayers actually pay no tax; if we assume that this will also be the case for the CO2 tax (the bill provides for a CO2 tax credit for each lower income household), then the total burden in 2012 per net paying taxpayer will be more like $650. So, a household of two taxpayers will get walloped with an effective $1300 CO2 bill.

To account for the huge disparity with the CBO estimate, either the government will force some entities upstream in the cost flow to eat these costs - with accompanying adverse consequences to the economy, or only a fraction of CO2 emissions will be taxed, which defeats the purpose of the legislation. Something doesn't quite make sense here, and we will post clarifications or revisions to our estimates if the need should become evident.

Intellectual honesty requires us to disclose that we do detect some faint strains of free-market environmentalism in this approach, which has appeal. Free-market environmentalism applied to fair-value pricing of federally owned timber or mineral resources makes sense, since such environmental effects are nearly wholly confined to the land mass of the United States. We could in principle tax ourselves to oblivion for CO2 and do nothing about the increasing emissions from industrialized China and India. Perhaps we could send them the bill?

P.S. - Intellectual honesty, too, would require Democrats to concede that nuclear power must play a prominent role in reducing our dependence on fossil fuels for energy generation. We will not hold our breath for such a proclamation.

Addendum: The Heritage Foundation has produced a bar graph showing the increased household energy costs caused by Waxman-Markey through 2035.

The Most Brilliant Musical Ever.

"How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying" is the Zeitgeist for the early 1960s. All of the numbers in the film version are superb, but here is our favorite (close second: "Gotta Stop That Man"). Robert Morse is brilliant here, and his role as a partner in Don Draper's ad agency in AMC's "Mad Men" was inspired casting. Like bookends for a commentary of those times. Enjoy.

Situational Support for Freedom.

A puzzling phenomena is occurring in Mainstream Meatpacker World: a large-scale insurrection appears to be breaking out in an authoritarian regime, and the President of the United States, the Leader of the Free World, has shown great reluctance to condemn the regime's theft of a recent national election. The reaction of Meatpacker editorial boards? Exercises in pretzel-logic to support the President's diffidence. Quite remarkable.